ELECTION 2008: New poll numbers

I'm happy to report that the McCain bounce is gone and it looks like we are bracing for a Barack Obama landslide!!!

Too bad the economy had to be run into the ground to make that happen.

Oh, and Charles Schumer, head of the DSCC and in charge of getting people elected to the Senate, is now openly talking about the possibility of 60 seats taken in the Senate for the Democrats. That's an unfilibusterable amount. The Republicans would be left with nothing to do but vote. This especially poignant locally since Bruce Lunsford seems to be coming up on Mitch McConnell over in Kentucky.

Let's look at some numbers, shall we? (The first "post-debate numbers" are starting to trickle in, so I thought I'd put this up before we saw the numbers come in.)

New Projections...
ElectionProjection.com (Conservative): 364 (BO), 174 (JM) -- One of the most pro-Republican sites ever and his words, that he got from Viking Pundit, was "Congratulations, President Obama." That's pretty significant. I just wish he hadn't gotten into the whole "pay to view" thing. Hey, some of us are poor and love the website. Sigh -- it means I haven't been following his excellent statistics as much. Most significant states that he's noting went blue: Missouri (few others are saying this at this point), North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida. All of them are "leans Obama."

Electoral-vote.com (Democrat): 349 (BO), 174 (JM), 15 (ties) -- Not ready, apparently, to call North Carolina even a lean Obama state yet. Still has it open to be called. Ok, maybe I was wrong on the Missouri thing -- he calls it, too, which is weird because Obama is just now pulling ahead and it's only been two polls... (His other site, EVStrength.com, has an interesting data point: if all the Election Junkie (Conservative): We're cutting this one because I don't the guy is posting anymore. Last post? September 25th. Post before that? September 6th... for the RNC.

ColdHeartedTruth (Conservative): 338 (BO), 200 (JM) Still lists North Carolina, Indiana, and Missouri as McCain states, which is a viable point. Although he's somehow under the unlikely assumption that Michigan only "leans Obama."

270towin.com (unbiased): 264 (BO), 164 (JM), 111 (tie) Something is strange about this website that I can't ever seem to find the information I'm looking for. It may be dropped next time. OH! There it goes. Swing states include: VA, NC, OH, MO, FL, NV, IN, and CO. Point to be made here: there are fewer and fewer swing states and the ones that are are big ones.

USElectionAtlas (unbiased): 329 (BO), 158 (JM), 51 (ties) We're going to start basing this number off their polling map, not their prediction map. Dave's prediction map, for some reason, mainly has the Kerry states for Obama and is the exact same number as last time.

DemConWatch (Democrat): 321 (BO), 217 (JM) They are listing the following as "tossup:" Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Colorado, and Nevada.

FiveThirtyEight.com (Democrat): 347.6 (BO), 190.4 (JM) This actually has an interesting little bit that I'm going to be talking about on the new one... that I'm adding now...

Pollster.com (unbiased): 320 (BO), 158 (JM), 60 (tie) I wonder when this would happen. Both Pollster.com and FiveThirtyEight.com are listing West Virginia as a toss up. This is the first time, but it's been closer than they've been reporting all along. In short, no one thought it would close up and would, like Montana and the Dakotas early on, start becoming redder. Nope. It's becoming bluer.

Old Projections ...
ElectionProjection.com: 273 (BO), 265 (JM)
Electoral-vote.com: 273 (BO), 265 (JM)
Election Junkie: 298 (BO), 240 (JM)
ColdHeartedTruth: 273 (BO), 265 (JM)
USElectionAtlas: 273 (BO), 265 (JM)
FiveThirtyEight.com: 312 (BO), 226 (JM)

ELECTION 2008: New Electoral Vote Count Update!

ISO: A poll tracker that currently shows a John McCain win based on state-by-state polling. I would like to start tracking that, as well, but my main sources of conservative commentation -- ColdHeartedTruth, Election Junkie, and Election Projection -- all show a statistical win for Barack Obama.

OK -- so it's been well over a month before I did a comprehensive update on the election, and I'm not going to do a lot of going into anything becuase everyone is still obsessed with celebrity.

The big news, of course, is that John McCain's post-convention bounce has vanished into thin air.... and the unfavorables on that woman are going up. And, what makes things even more fun, is that it appears we have an outing in the McCain camp: Mark Buse, McCain's Chief of Staff. According to Joe.My.God., this is one of four acceptable reasons to out a public figure... when they run the program for a prominent anti-gay politician. And I think, yes, we're going to say that he's anti-gay, that McCain fellow. (This was originally posted on Michelangelo Signorile's blog, btw, who does an excellent job talking about it.)

It has also been reported that Obama seems to have conceded North Dakota, despite earlier indications he was ahead there by pulling out his staff and moving them to Mississippi and Wisconsin. Why does this matter? Because it signifies the first major move away from the 50-state solution in a state that looked like we might be able to grab. But... Mississippi? Obama must be really hoping for huge new additions to the voter rolls... though the socially conservative black vote in California may start problems for Proposition 8.

Oh, and the first debate is this Friday.

Onto the numbers, where I'm going to simply start documenting what states are "new Dem" states from the 2004 (what seems to be pickups from the 2004 election) -- please note that Barack only needs to get all the Kerry states + 3 more... pretty much any three more.

There is a very large chance that we could have a tie situtation. If Barack wins Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa, but New Hampshire goes red (this is a completely likely scenario), then the EV's split 269-269. The House then decides the election with each state getting one vote. There's a great rundown on what that would look like out there on the interweb somewhere that I read. I will try to find it again because it is worth the read and shows a likely John McCain win (if we assume that the representatives from each state, appropriately, voted for the candidate that their state went for). A tie, then, works well into the hands of the Republicans even assuming a complete Dem take-over of the House (also very likely).

Oh, and PS, I really don't think either Pennsylvania or Michigan are as "swingy" as everyone makes them out to be. Rather, I think there is almost no chance either will go McCain unless it's a McCain landslide.

As a reminder, this is what the 2004 electoral vote map looked like...



New Projections...
ElectionProjection.com: 273 (BO), 265 (JM) -- Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa (the second two look to be less "swing" this time around) There also seems to be an interesting shift in both the Governor's races, with Washington swinging right, and a Senate race or two on this site.

Electoral-Vote.com: 273 (BO), 265 (JM) -- Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa. I watch this site daily ... he updates at 6:00am. Also, he started a new site, evstrength.com, though I prefer his old method. Check out the map from Sept. 18, whic was the highest point McCain had reached, when Pennsylvania started to swing -- it is the only winning scenario that any site has yet published.

Election Junkie: 298 (BO), 240 (JM) -- Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Nevada, and Ohio. This is really really old data, publishedon 8/30/08, so pre-convention.

ColdHeartedTruth: 273 (BO), 265 (JM) -- CO, NM, IA. Are you seeing a pattern here, kids?

270toWin.com: 202 (BO), 163 (JM), 173 (ties) -- these are the "strong state numbers." Swing states listed: WI, MI, MO (which is almost out of the discussion these days it seems), CO, NV, PA, OH, IN, VA, NH, NC, FL, and MN. A lot more Dem swings than Rep swings.

USElection Atlas: 273 (BO), 265 (JM) -- again, more of the same. CO, NM, IA.

DemConWatch: 284 (BO), 254 (JM) -- I'm not quite sure I understand where they get this number from -- but I like it!!!

FiveThirtyEight.com: 312 (BO), 226 (JM) -- this is the only site that shows a "landslide" (>300EV's) for Barack, it's also the only one that has VA still listed as blue. However, it's also the only site that weights the polls based on accuracy and when they were done. Something to think about...


Last Post's (8/13/08) Projections...
ElectionProjection.com: 298 (BO), 240 (JM)
Electoral-Vote.com: 289 (BO), 249 (JM)
Election Junkie: 278 (BO), 260 (JM)
ColdHeartedTruth: 298 (BO), 240 (JM)
270toWin.com: 231 (BO), 154 (BO), 153 (ties)
USElectionAtlas: 293 (BO), 245 (JM)
DemConWatch: 299 (BO), 239 (JM)

I know you are all so excited I did this. Just, please, humor me and read :-).

ELECTION 2008: Follow up to Sarah Palin.

Yea, so the reaction is... mixed. Which is distinct from the Biden announcement because no one could say anything bad. Let's jump into the reactions:

Blind Prophecy...

While I admire some of the anti-oil corruption work she’s one since getting elected in Alaska, she couldn’t be further away from me on important social issues without changing her last name to Huckabee.

I really hope Hillary stands frim on her pledge to do everything she can to get Obama elected, because McCain’s choice of Palin couldn’t be more transparent in his desire to steal Hillary supporters away from Obama.

Twitter meme -- Little Known Facts About Sarah Palin... (thanks Kate!!!!) my fav:

Little Known Fact: Sarah Palin is a little known fact.

Coldhearted Truth...

Why it was good:

First and foremost... I don't think this was either the best or worst pick he could have made. I know I would have preferred Pawlenty and possibly even Kay Hutchinson. But I know I would have been terribly disappointed with Mitt Romney or Tom Ridge. I considered Palin in that same area as Joe Lieberman... somewhat of a mixed bag.

Why it was bad:

His very first important decision and it is... GHASTLY

I am extremely disapointed.

I hope she has no skeletons in her closet and was vetted properly.

Bilerico (lots of great research):

Indeed, that's probably reason #1 here. But it's pretty dumb, considering that Hillary Clinton's success didn't derive just from the fact that she was a woman, but that she was a strong, intelligent, experienced woman who fought for women's rights and health care for decades. Palin's not. It's a pretty cynical move, but, then again, McCain actually thinks he has a chance among Democratic Hillary supporters.

Personally, I'm guessing this will only highlight McCain's anti-choice record, and the anti-choicers agree.

Election Junkie...

My initial thought was that it would hurt McCain's experience argument, but from a better prospective, McCain's experience didn't go away. As far as executive experience, Palin is in better shape than Obama. So how could Obama even think about trying to raise that argument. He has had one year in the senate, and two years of campaigning.

Queerty...

This soft gay love could complicate matters with staunch social conservatives, but that voting bloc will no doubt appreciate her strident pro-life and gun rights stance. If Palin and McCain can make the benefits issue look like an issue of Democratic ideals, then that could stop any reactionary outrage. Only time will tell how that will play out.

Mixed.

OHIO/CINNKY: Ohio Healthy Families Act

Gov. Strickland comes out against the Ohio Healthy Families Act??? Interesting...

From coldheartedtruth (a rightwing blog):

That makes as much sense as anything else. Governor Ted Strickland has recently announced that he is opposing Ohio Ballot Issue 4, aka The Ohio Healthy Families Act. This ballot initiative is the one of the projects nearest and dearest to the hearts of union organizers in Ohio, one of Governor Strickland's key constituencies that helped him win election in 2006. You can read all you want to know about it here: http://www.sickdaysohio.org/

Those in the know acknowledge that the ballot issue is a GOTV tactic for union members, wrapped in an inoccuous sounding name that will hopefully fool enough other people into voting in favor of it. The essence of the proposal, for those disinclined to follow the link, is that all Ohio businesses employing 25 or more people will be required to grant seven sick days per year to each employee. Business groups are obviously adamantly opposed to the initiative.

I do not seriously think Ted Strickland is a stealth VP candidate for John McCain, but it will be interesting to see how this one plays out. Some think that the Democratic Party in Ohio has already folded its tent on the Presidential election and is focused instead on garnering two or three more seats in the US Congress and perhaps gaining a majority in the lower house of the Ohio Legislature. I don't have an opinion on whether that is true, but if Obama loses Ohio, his electoral mountain will get a little bit steeper.

Blah blah blah. I wonder

ELECTION 2008: Finally! An update!!!!

John Edwards, John Edwards, John Edwards. It makes me sad, but it happened. I don't think, however, it will play that well in the general election, but it certainly bars him from the Convention (I believe it has been confirmed that neither him nor his wife will be speaking -- anyone surprised???). However, we've seen this whole "stand by your man" routine before (speaking of E. Edwards); is Elizabeth Edwards thinking about politics in the future??? Well timed, too, btw, John Edwards... on the first day of the Olympics. And right before an invasion. Easily buried story.

There's a sad rhetoric that major female voices in American politics -- or at least the celebrity female voices -- are wives of male politicians. Ahem -- Liddy Dole and Hillary Clinton. I will say this right now: I would die to see a Dole-Clinton fight again, but this time with the wives. I really believe, in this one, Dole will win.

So Obama is slipping a little in all the polls. It's August. The election is boring right now, nothing is going on, though the Georgia-Russia situation is definitely an interesting test for both of them. Like most of the world -- and President Bush -- Obama called on Russia and Georgia to accept ceasefires, and supported Georgia and blasted Russia's militarism. McCain, meanwhile, supports Russia's decision. Interesting. Forecast of things to come??? Oh, and, apparently, McCain has said that it would be wise to expell Russia from the G8.... riiiiiight. Is there some giant plot on the part of the Republicans to make him seem as folksy as our current President???

The Convention is shaking up -- FINALLY!!! :-) And Hillary supporters seem to be planning some sort of march on the Convention??? That's silly. One thing to the PUMA (party unity my ass) voters: COME ON!!!! :-) Hillary, though not encouraging the situation, doesn't seem to be helping it either. Although I can't fault her for simply acknowledging that there are a lot of REALLY REALLY pro-Clinton supporters still out there, and that they want to be heard at the Convention. Simple solution: take it to a real floor vote, leave them both in the kitty, and have it ultimately said: BARACK WON. Period, end of story. She's a prime-time speaker, so the country will still hear her. But Tim sent me an interesting Op-Ed piece in the NYT about HRC:

While Obama was spending three hours watching “The Dark Knight” five time zones away, and going to a fund-raiser featuring “Aloha attire” and Hawaiian pupus, Hillary was busy planning her convention.

You can almost hear her mind whirring: She’s amazed at how easy it was to snatch Denver away from the Obama saps. Like taking candy from a baby, except Beanpole Guy doesn’t eat candy. In just a couple of weeks, Bill and Hill were able to drag No Drama Obama into a swamp of Clinton drama.

As for the VEEPSTAKES... I want to say this right now: I have four major people I'm rooting for. Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas (she's a lot like Clinton, but less dirty), Evan Bayh of Indiana (it would solidify the midwest for Obama and he's really cool), Hillary Clinton (duh, but I don't think this will happen), and Bill Richardson (though I really doubt this will happen). In all likelihood, Obama will probably pick up Kaine from Virginia, though I think the far wiser decision is Bayh. Can we have two people with funny names on the ballot though (Obama-Bayh... Barack-Evan...), especially when McCain-Romney sounds so presidential???

Current Estimates...

ElectionProjection.com: 298 (BO), 240 (JM)
Missouri and Virginia are the big changes here back to McCain, and, like most sites, Montana, ND, and SD have all gone back to red -- not a big surprise.

Electoral-Vote.com: 289 (BO), 249 (JM)
The big switch here comes from Ohio and Virginia "leaning McCain" according to the polls. That's unfortunate. Probably the more disturbing thing that comes along is his new feature -- This Day in 2004 -- which confirms that Kerry was still ahead 307-231 around this time four years ago. The conservative pundits like to point this fact out, except they leave out one major issue: Barack is not John Kerry. Kerry was barely understandable when he spoke, and he had that whole Vietnam War thing going on that, in retrospect, actually hurt him quite a bit. Obama is different.

Election Junkie: 278 (BO), 260 (JM)
This site actually lists it as the closest of all the sites, though it's hard to tell why as there's no map involved. It was actually his update (yesterday) that spurred me to update the sites...

ColdHeartedTruth: 298 (BO), 240 (JM)
Are you noticing a trend here when it comes to the numbers???

270toWin.com: 231 (BO), 154 (BO), 153 (ties)
This one is fun to watch because of the ever growing number of ties they list. Currently: NM, NV, FL, NH, MO, MI, OH, MT, SD, ND, IA, VA, and NC. That's a lot to go after this early in the game.

USElectionAtlas: 293 (BO), 245 (JM)
No major changes... even from two weeks.

NEW SITE...
DemConWatch: 299 (BO), 239 (JM)
Finally! Found a biased site for the Democrats. We had ColdHeartedTruth for the Republicans... this one, I think, will balance it all out! :-) The other two sites which state their political affiliation -- ElectionProjection and Electoral-Vote -- are so mathematical in nature that I don't believe that they are biased. In this particular circumstance, DemConWatch is the biggest Obama win, while ColdHeartedTruth is his smallest win. Is anyone surprised????

Last Week's Estimates...

ElectionProjection.com: 325 (BO), 213 (JM)
Electoral Vote: 292 (BO), 219 (JM), 27 (ties)
Election Junkie: 309 (BO), 229 (JM)
Cold Hearted Truth: 293 (BO), 245 (JM)
270toWin.com: 247 (BO), 174 (JM), 117 (ties)
USElectionAtlas: 293 (BO), 245 (JM)

ELECTION 2008: Electoral Vote Update

The biggest thing is that states seem to be dropping into play faster than we can write about them. NH and FL reenter the scene as swing states, while OH starts its pendulous back-and-forth, IN comes back into the Obama column (along with Nevada), MO is still unsure of what to do with its bellwether mandate, and South Dakota begins to teeter. Virginia and North Carolina still are up in the air -- VA especially. CQPolitics enlightens us to the swing, but they seem to be saying BO is going up, but a lot of places are showing him go down.

Seems John McCain has gone negative, posting the first negative ads of the election season. Be careful, the bump you get off of those are brief and often bite you in the ass.

There were some rumors that McCain would pick a VP this week, and it was looking like Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, who came out later and said PHBBBBTTT NO!

On the flip side, there was an excellent piece in the Wall Street Journal that talks about the cultural significance of Barack Obama and the racial politics behind it, gracefully entitled Why Jesse Jackson Hates Obama:

Mr. Obama's great political ingenuity was very simple: to trade moral leverage for gratitude. Give up moral leverage over whites, refuse to shame them with America's racist past, and the gratitude they show you will constitute a new form of black power. They will love you for the faith you show in them.

So it is not hard to see why Mr. Jackson might have experienced Mr. Obama's emergence as something of a stiletto in the heart. Mr. Obama is a white "race card" -- moral leverage that whites can use against the moral leverage black leaders have wielded against them for decades. He is the nullification of Jesse Jackson -- the anti-Jackson...

But here lies his essential contradiction: His campaign is more cultural than political. He sells himself more as a cultural breakthrough than as a candidate for office. To be a projection screen for the cultural aspirations of both blacks and whites one must be an invisible man politically. Real world politics, in their mundanity, interrupt cultural projections. And so Mr. Obama's political invisibility -- a charm that can only derive from a lack of deep political convictions -- may well serve his cultural appeal, but it also makes him something of a political mess.

Already he has flip-flopped on campaign financing, wire-tapping, gun control, faith-based initiatives, and the terms of withdrawal from Iraq. Those enamored of his cultural potential may say these reversals are an indication of thoughtfulness, or even open-mindedness. But could it be that this is a man who trusted so much in his cultural appeal that the struggles of principle and conscience never seemed quite real to him? His flip-flops belie an almost existential callowness toward principle, as if the very idea of permanent truth is passé, a form of bad taste.

This Week's Estimates...

ElectionProjection.com: 325 (BO), 213 (JM)
Although there is only a net shift of +14BO, you'll notice that Florida has flipped into BO's column, while VA has flipped back to JM. I'm actually not sure what poll the Florida flip comes from, or why he made that call, seeing as how the most recent poll we have is JM +2...

Electoral Vote: 292 (BO), 219 (JM), 27 (ties)
That's BO-28, and JM +15. The page makes a couple of interesting switches: Missouri, North Dakota, and Virginia are now all listed as ties, whereas Ohio performs the first definitive flip this election season, going from BO to JM.

Election Junkie: 309 (BO), 229 (JM)
No idea what the switch is, but flips it BO+3. Likely it's Montana or North Dakota that got flipped in this projection.

Cold Hearted Truth: 293 (BO), 245 (JM)
Same. But I found the link to their justification to this number. He is listing Nevada, Florida, Missouri, and Virginia as red state holds, while IA, CO, OH, and NM go blue.

270toWin.com: 247 (BO), 174 (JM), 117 (ties)
Ohio flips to red. They list a lot of swing states, which makes this election so interesting. This is their list of swings: NV, NM, MT, SD, ND, MO, IN, MI, VA, NC, FL, NH. That's a lot of swinging to do. I have this small theory that a lot more states will become swing states this election.

USElectionAtlas: 293 (BO), 245 (JM)
Dave Leip has posted a projection page! Yea! Nothing surprising, in fact, same projection as Cold Hearted Truth.

Last Week's Estimates...

ElectionProjection.com: 311 (BO), 227 (JM)
Electoral Vote: 320 (BO), 204 (JM)
Election Junkie: 306 (BO), 232 (JM)
Cold Hearted Truth: 293 (BO), 245 (JM)
270toWin.com: 259 (BO), 151 (JM)
USElectionAtlas: 268 (BO), 172 (JM)

ELECTION 2008: Weekly Poll Estimates... 7-18-08

All things said, I think it's important to point out a great article here over at Election Geek. Here's a perfect quote before we get into the polls and the projections for this week:

Most Americans, those in the center and the suburbs and rural parts of this nation, don’t make their minds up until after the conventions, the debates and the bulk of the coverage is over. They decide in the final weeks and days and they do it with a gut feeling of whom they “like” more or which candidate shares their values or their vision for that time and place.

So in short not one bit of the polling matters. All we know is that the president is unpopular, the World is moving rapidly and everything we think we know will change.

This Week's Estimates...

ElectionProjection.com: 311 (BO), 227 (JM)
BO+5 due to Nevada switching for no clear reason, I can't seem to find the poll he made that call on.

Electoral Vote: 320 (BO), 204 (JM)
JM-14 due to Missouri (!!!!) and North Dakota now being listed as "ties." A recent poll shows BO has pulled ahead enough to throw off this sites laws of averages, and therefore call this one dead even in Missouri.

Election Junkie: 306 (BO), 232 (JM)
JM+14. I'm not quite sure why the numbers are changing here like they are, as I don't follow him as religiously as some of the other sites. However, he has a tendency to throw out outlier polls, unlike some other sites that treat them all equally. SO, his numbers may be a tad more reliable. His new prediction discussion is here, and I'm sure you've heard that John McCain is rising in the national polls which he discusses here.

Cold Hearted Truth: 293 (BO), 245 (JM)
No change.

270toWin.com: 259 (BO), 151 (JM)
Using the new link they emailed to me! I'm not listing any changes because I'm foolish and couldn't seem to get any of the numbers right! LOL! So, these stand alone but also list Missouri, Nevada, and North Dakota as ties. This one also lists South Dakota as a tie -- I mean, it, ND, and Montana are demographically similarly so it makes sense if those two are going, this one would too... And there was a poll that listed JM only ahead by 4 there on 7-9-08 by Ramussen, so we'll see if that was an outlier or a predictor of things to come...

USElectionAtlas: 268 (BO), 172 (JM)
JM-16, due to Missouri and Nevada listed as "ties" now. There's the poll I couldn't find on ElectionProjection (actually, I could, I just thought it was referring to something else). It was a Ramussen poll dated yesterday showing Obama ahead there by 2.

Last Week's Estimates...

ElectionProjection.com: 306 (BO), 232 (JM)
Electoral Vote: 320 (BO) 218 (JM)
Election Junkie: 306 (BO), 218 (JM)
Coldhearted Truth: 293 (BO), 245 (JM)
270toWin.com: 185 (BO), 174 (JM)
USElectionAtlas: 268 (BO), 188 (JM)