Wednesday, August 13, 2008

ELECTION 2008: Finally! An update!!!!

John Edwards, John Edwards, John Edwards. It makes me sad, but it happened. I don't think, however, it will play that well in the general election, but it certainly bars him from the Convention (I believe it has been confirmed that neither him nor his wife will be speaking -- anyone surprised???). However, we've seen this whole "stand by your man" routine before (speaking of E. Edwards); is Elizabeth Edwards thinking about politics in the future??? Well timed, too, btw, John Edwards... on the first day of the Olympics. And right before an invasion. Easily buried story.

There's a sad rhetoric that major female voices in American politics -- or at least the celebrity female voices -- are wives of male politicians. Ahem -- Liddy Dole and Hillary Clinton. I will say this right now: I would die to see a Dole-Clinton fight again, but this time with the wives. I really believe, in this one, Dole will win.

So Obama is slipping a little in all the polls. It's August. The election is boring right now, nothing is going on, though the Georgia-Russia situation is definitely an interesting test for both of them. Like most of the world -- and President Bush -- Obama called on Russia and Georgia to accept ceasefires, and supported Georgia and blasted Russia's militarism. McCain, meanwhile, supports Russia's decision. Interesting. Forecast of things to come??? Oh, and, apparently, McCain has said that it would be wise to expell Russia from the G8.... riiiiiight. Is there some giant plot on the part of the Republicans to make him seem as folksy as our current President???

The Convention is shaking up -- FINALLY!!! :-) And Hillary supporters seem to be planning some sort of march on the Convention??? That's silly. One thing to the PUMA (party unity my ass) voters: COME ON!!!! :-) Hillary, though not encouraging the situation, doesn't seem to be helping it either. Although I can't fault her for simply acknowledging that there are a lot of REALLY REALLY pro-Clinton supporters still out there, and that they want to be heard at the Convention. Simple solution: take it to a real floor vote, leave them both in the kitty, and have it ultimately said: BARACK WON. Period, end of story. She's a prime-time speaker, so the country will still hear her. But Tim sent me an interesting Op-Ed piece in the NYT about HRC:

While Obama was spending three hours watching “The Dark Knight” five time zones away, and going to a fund-raiser featuring “Aloha attire” and Hawaiian pupus, Hillary was busy planning her convention.

You can almost hear her mind whirring: She’s amazed at how easy it was to snatch Denver away from the Obama saps. Like taking candy from a baby, except Beanpole Guy doesn’t eat candy. In just a couple of weeks, Bill and Hill were able to drag No Drama Obama into a swamp of Clinton drama.

As for the VEEPSTAKES... I want to say this right now: I have four major people I'm rooting for. Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas (she's a lot like Clinton, but less dirty), Evan Bayh of Indiana (it would solidify the midwest for Obama and he's really cool), Hillary Clinton (duh, but I don't think this will happen), and Bill Richardson (though I really doubt this will happen). In all likelihood, Obama will probably pick up Kaine from Virginia, though I think the far wiser decision is Bayh. Can we have two people with funny names on the ballot though (Obama-Bayh... Barack-Evan...), especially when McCain-Romney sounds so presidential???

Current Estimates... 298 (BO), 240 (JM)
Missouri and Virginia are the big changes here back to McCain, and, like most sites, Montana, ND, and SD have all gone back to red -- not a big surprise. 289 (BO), 249 (JM)
The big switch here comes from Ohio and Virginia "leaning McCain" according to the polls. That's unfortunate. Probably the more disturbing thing that comes along is his new feature -- This Day in 2004 -- which confirms that Kerry was still ahead 307-231 around this time four years ago. The conservative pundits like to point this fact out, except they leave out one major issue: Barack is not John Kerry. Kerry was barely understandable when he spoke, and he had that whole Vietnam War thing going on that, in retrospect, actually hurt him quite a bit. Obama is different.

Election Junkie: 278 (BO), 260 (JM)
This site actually lists it as the closest of all the sites, though it's hard to tell why as there's no map involved. It was actually his update (yesterday) that spurred me to update the sites...

ColdHeartedTruth: 298 (BO), 240 (JM)
Are you noticing a trend here when it comes to the numbers??? 231 (BO), 154 (BO), 153 (ties)
This one is fun to watch because of the ever growing number of ties they list. Currently: NM, NV, FL, NH, MO, MI, OH, MT, SD, ND, IA, VA, and NC. That's a lot to go after this early in the game.

USElectionAtlas: 293 (BO), 245 (JM)
No major changes... even from two weeks.

DemConWatch: 299 (BO), 239 (JM)
Finally! Found a biased site for the Democrats. We had ColdHeartedTruth for the Republicans... this one, I think, will balance it all out! :-) The other two sites which state their political affiliation -- ElectionProjection and Electoral-Vote -- are so mathematical in nature that I don't believe that they are biased. In this particular circumstance, DemConWatch is the biggest Obama win, while ColdHeartedTruth is his smallest win. Is anyone surprised????

Last Week's Estimates... 325 (BO), 213 (JM)
Electoral Vote: 292 (BO), 219 (JM), 27 (ties)
Election Junkie: 309 (BO), 229 (JM)
Cold Hearted Truth: 293 (BO), 245 (JM) 247 (BO), 174 (JM), 117 (ties)
USElectionAtlas: 293 (BO), 245 (JM)

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