Predictions for Super Tuesday:
PLEASE NOTE: When editing this post again and again and again, the HTML has gotten messed up somehow. I think I've fixed most of it... but, for example, I lost three predictions at one point. So, just stick with me and tell me what I've missed.
AlabamaD: Obama by 3-6%
R: McCain by 3-6% (Huckabee may pull a little closer)
delegates awarded proportionally on both sidesAlaskaD: I'm holding off saying either way, as there's an interesting catch here: Mike Gravel who is still on the ballot. There is a possibility that he may take his home state. I'm going to "say" that Gravel will take it in a landslide, but, if not, my next guess is that Clinton will win by 3-6%.
R: McCain by >10%
delegates awarded proportionally on both sidesthere have been no polls done in AlaskaArizonaD: Clinton by 3-6%
R: McCain by >10%
delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats"Winner-takes-all" for the RepublicansArkansasD: Clinton by >10%
R: Huckabee by >10%
delegates awarded proportionally on both sidesthere have been no polls done on either side since 12/14/07CaliforniaD: Clinton but barely (<3%)>delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats
"Winner-takes all" by Congressional District for the RepublicansColoradoD: Obama but barely (<3%)>10%
delegates awarded proportionally on both sidesConnecticutD: Obama but barely (<3%)>10%
delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats"Winner-takes-all" for the RepublicansDelawareD: Clinton by 3-6%
R: McCain by 7-10%
delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats"Winner-takes-all" for the RepublicansGeorgiaD: Obama by >10%
R: Huckabee but barely (<3%>delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats
"Winner-takes-all" for the RepublicansIdahoD: Obama by >10% <--I'm calling this on absolutely nothing, as the last poll in 7/07 had Al Gore in it (and winning), which is a group that you would assume, naturally, would gravitate towards the Clintons, but I think he has become something of a superhero for the "younger set" and I think those who would choose him would gravitate towards the more liberal Obama... plus, the environment is a big issue out there, and Obama has the better environmental record (it's hard to tarnish your record in six years, isn't it?)
delegates awarded proportionally for both sidesIllinoisD: Obama by >10%
R: McCain by >10%
delegates awarded proportionally for both sidesKansasD: Obama but barely (<3%)>delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats
MassachusettsD: Clinton by >10%
R: Romney by >10%
delegates awarded proportionally for both sidesMissouriD: Clinton by 3-6%
R: McCain but barely (<3%>delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats
"Winner-takes-all" for the RepublicansMinnesotaD: Clinton 7-10%
R: McCain >10%
delegates awarded proportionally for both sidesMontanaR: Romney, but barely (close second: McCain) <--I'm calling this on nothing, as there have been no polls in Montana, and I'm assuming, like in Kansas with Obama, Romney will carry most of this area of the country
delegates awarded proportionally for both sidesNew JerseyD: Clinton by 3-6%
R: McCain by >10%
delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats"Winner-takes-all" for the RepublicansNew MexicoD: Clinton but barely (<3%)>delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats
New YorkD: Clinton by >10%
R: McCain by >10%
delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats"Winner-takes-all" for the RepublicansNorth DakotaD: Clinton by >10%
R: Romney by >10%
there have been no polls or news about anyone and North Dakota, so I'm just guessing here; McCain and Obama may take itdelegates awarded proportionally for both sidesOklahomaD: Clinton >10%
R: McCain by 3-6%
delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats"Winner-takes-all" for the RepublicansTennesseeD: Clinton by >10%
R: McCain but barely (<3%)>delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats
"Winner-takes-all" for the Republicans, if there is a majority (proportional if there is a plurality)UtahD: Obama by >10% -- there is only one poll out there by "Dan Jones" in 1/08 that has Obama way ahead, by over 20 points, so we're basing this on that and that alone; it might be a mistake as Clinton was way ahead when there was still a full Democratic field ahead of us
R: Romney by >10%
delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats"Winner-takes-all" for the RepublicansBTW--> I have no idea if West Virginia has anything tomrow. I have so many sources saying so many things.
If they have their Republican state convention tomrow, which is what CNN reports, then I'm giving it to McCain by a hefty margin. But, none of the poll sites are reporting anything will be decided tomrow. Oh, and, Obama went to go talk to the Democratic convention... today? I'm no coal miners daughter, so my attention is elsewhere.
So, I'll call this: by Wednesday, I think McCain will pretty much have the nomination locked up. Not perfectly, but he'll be so close it will almost be impossible to beat him. To the Blogging Caesar of
http://www.electionprojection.com/ (another site I follow -- if you read this Caesar, I followed you REALLY close in 2004, but your move from "unbiased" to "conservative commentator" has made me stopped coming by as often) --> I take your challenge. Let's see whose edicts are right. And, btw, I so wanted to scoop you on the McCain-as-nominee edict. *Sigh* I failed. Because of the split delegates in most states with the Dems, the Obama-Clinton ticket will continue to be a big question. (And for those thinking of the "dream ticket" of Clinton-Obama in 2008 ... Roland Martin has an interesting analysis of that here:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/04/roland.martin/index.html . . . do I agree? somewhat; I'm sure Mrs. Clinton will not want to be VP)
And, btw, I was wrong about the surprise endorsement (I really was expecting Bill Richardson to say something today), so god only knows how much of this is right.
