ELECTION 2008: Final post of the evening for Super Tuesday

CLINTON GOT CALIFORNIA!!! As did McCain!!!! :-) Regardless of everything, that's the big one. :-)

So the final break downs of things I've not covered:

Alaska -- Obama (unk on GOP)
Missouri -- looks like it's Obama and McCain (Missouri, btw, is a bellweather state, as is Delaware... grrrrr...)

I think everything else has been covered... the rest of them, I was right on. We're still waiting on New Mexico, which may turn out to be the real question of the night. That, and the 2000 vote difference for Obama/Clinton in Missouri.

So the new question: What IS the possibility of a Clinton-Obama ticket? I mean, really. It's beginning to look like an inevitability. AND it would bring the party back together in a nice tight package. Lord knows, we don't want to fight until the convention.

ELECTION 2008: PS

CNN just predicted Huckabee for Georgia.

Score one for QitC

I'm going to a quick updated prediction for the uncalled states:

Clinton wins: Missouri, Arizona, New Mexico, Alaska, and California.
Obama wins: Utah, Idaho, and Colorado.

McCain wins: California, Missouri and Alaska.
Huckabee wins: Tennessee.
Romney wins: Montana and Colorado.

I'm 90% sure of these... the only ones I could really go bad on are the two Alaska's (again, no polls, so I'm looking at other people's predictions, which have been wrong in several key places for the Dems) and the Missouri GOP.

ELECTION 2008: Third Post of the Evening -- 2300

Ok, so I'm tired of reading over everything, I'm just going to do the "Corrects" and the "Incorrects" -- there are precious few Corrects :-(

Correct
Arkansas Dem -- Clinton WAS the First Lady of the state. Are you surprised?

Arkansas GOP -- Who'd a thunk anyone would care about Arkansas? Did you know that both Bill Clinton and Mike Huckabee are from the same home town? Strange place this little state... smallest one that side of the Mississippi, btw.

Arizona GOP -- There was a brief moment where we wondered if McCain was going to win his home state, but, come on folks... it's his home state. If Hillary can still pull Arkansas, and Romney can pull his "three home states" (UT, MI, MA), then I think this one is a given.

Connecticut Dem -- I'm giving myself this one, because I guessed by <3%Connecticut GOP -- McCain pretty much swept New England this evening, didn't he?

Delaware GOP -- I'm giving myself this one... I said 7-10, it turned out about 12 points for McCain. I'm ok with a little bit of "touching up" of my original guesses.

Georgia Dem -- Is it annoying to any of my black readers how much emphasis they are placing on the "black vote???" In a discussion with SCF, we wondered how racially based politicking is somehow OK, especially in the media, but gender based politicking is pariah.

Illinois Dem -- Obama's home state, Clinton didn't have a chance

Illinois GOP -- And I was really good at predicting the GOP. Of course, I'm far more unbiased in that area.

Massachusetts Dem -- Even the Kennedy's couldn't swing a win for Obama in their home state... Clinton by >10% baby!

Massachusetts GOP -- I debated whether or not to give myself this one -- Romney by 10 while I guessed >10. It's not quite the landslide he was hoping for. Good for him, but it's not as much as I thought he would take it by.

New Jersey Dem -- Yea! Was only one point off on this Clinton victory by 7%

New Jersey GOP -- Apparently I was wrong earlier about Giuliani on the ticket and coming in second. But wouldn't that have been funny?

New York Dem -- Duh. Clinton took it.

New York GOP -- Was there any question after the Giuliani endorsement? And, good job for McCain -- it's a winner-take-all state.

North Dakota GOP -- I suppose the Mormon influence is as great as I expected out in the western states

Oklahoma Dem -- Apparently Arkansas's sphere of influence for Clinton goes east and west. Who knew?

Oklahoma GOP -- Mccain by 4 points. I totally called it :-)

Tennessee Dem -- Duh. Clinton took it, as well.

Utah GOP -- Jesus! Or, should I say, Joseph Smith! 86 points to 7!!!! I have family out there. I am totally going to call them and ask them about the Mormon utopia that IS Utah.

West Virginia GOP -- Huckabee. He did really well today, didn't he?

Incorrect
Alabama Dem -- Obama by 14 points??? I didn't think he'd win THAT big there.

Alabama GOP -- HA! Georgia and Alabama go for a black man and... Huckabee? Never thought I'd see the day the voters went completely insane.

Delaware Dem -- Obama by 10 points??? Again, how did that happen?

Kansas Dem -- I'm not going to eat any crow on this one as there were no polls to guide us. I think I overestimated Clinton's celebrity, and am surprised Obama pulled this one off by a greater than 10-point victory

Minnesota Dem -- I think the Obama victory here is a surprise for a lot of people, as most people guessed Clinton would pull this off with well over a ten point spread; Obama got greater than a 10-point spread

Minnesota GOP -- I think Minnesota gave us all a run for our money this evening. Neither one turned out like most people expected.

North Dakota Dem -- Like Kansas, I overestimated Clinton's celebrity. Obama won BIG.

--------------

So, I haven't done so bad yet. I think I'll also get the following correct: Idaho Dem, Missouri Dem, Arizona Dem, Georgia GOP, Colorado GOP, and California GOP. But it looks like I'm f*cked in: Utah Dem, Colorado Dem, and Montana GOP.

But here's some surprises:

1) Could Huckabee take MISSOURI? NO WAY! It's really close, and Huckabee's ahead.

2) Could Huckabee take TENNESSEE? This man is doing really well today.

3) And Montana's second place winner is going to be... Ron Paul. No, really.

Give me a couple of hours and I'll do my next (and probably last) of the evening.

ELECTION 2008: Second Result Post -- 2020

Correct
Illinois
Prediction: Obama >10%
Actual: They called it the moment the polls closed. Meaning: landslide.

Prediction: McCain by >10%
Actual: They called it the moment the polls closed. Meaning: landslide.

Connecticut
Prediction: McCain by >10%
Actual: They called it the moment the polls closed. Meaning: landslide.

Massachusetts
Prediction: Romney by >10%
Actual: They called it the moment the polls closed. Meaning: landslide. But, it's not looking like the 10% margin. It may be a little smaller, so we're still kinda waiting. But it's called for Romney.

New Jersey
Prediction: McCain by >10%
Actual: Well, when Giuliani is coming up as the second place, I think it's safe to say that Mr. McCain has it in the bag.

Oklahoma
Prediction: Clinton by >10%
Actual: They called it the moment the polls closed. Meaning: landslide.

We're waiting on Delaware for the Dems, whose polls closed at 8pm. Arizona closes in a few moments, and I'm leaving the library. Next update will be in a few hours.

ELECTION 2008: First Result Post -- 1930

We have the first results back, and I'm already wrong - HA! So, we'll see how the rest of the night goes!

CORRECT
Georgia
Prediction: Obama by >10%
Actual: Exit Polls showing him ahead 64-30

Incorrect
West Virginia
Prediction: I ain't no coal miner's daughter (no prediction)
Actual: Caucus has Huckabee 52-47 over Romney -- 1% McCain -- apparently, when it seemed like Romney would take a plurality over McCain, the McCain supporters threw their support after the first vote behind Huckabee. Interesting -- tit makes sense as the McCain-Romney fight is the real fight, with Huckabee going after a third, but I still thought McCain supporters would prefer Romney's rigid fiscalism to Huckabee's social conservatism.

We are not going to call the Georgia Republican race yet, as there are very few polls in and Huckabee (31%) is still fairly close to McCain (36%) and they've only counted like 2000 votes -- ie, still too close to call.

Next set comes in: 8pm with Connecticut, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Delaware, Alabama, Missouri, and Oklahoma. We should be able to call Mass, NJ, OK, AL, and IL at that point, but we'll be waiting on the rest.

ELECTION 2008: 50TH BLOG SPECTACULAR

Predictions for Super Tuesday:

PLEASE NOTE: When editing this post again and again and again, the HTML has gotten messed up somehow. I think I've fixed most of it... but, for example, I lost three predictions at one point. So, just stick with me and tell me what I've missed.

Alabama
D: Obama by 3-6%
R: McCain by 3-6% (Huckabee may pull a little closer)
delegates awarded proportionally on both sides

Alaska
D: I'm holding off saying either way, as there's an interesting catch here: Mike Gravel who is still on the ballot. There is a possibility that he may take his home state. I'm going to "say" that Gravel will take it in a landslide, but, if not, my next guess is that Clinton will win by 3-6%.
R: McCain by >10%
delegates awarded proportionally on both sides
there have been no polls done in Alaska

Arizona
D: Clinton by 3-6%
R: McCain by >10%
delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats
"Winner-takes-all" for the Republicans

Arkansas
D: Clinton by >10%
R: Huckabee by >10%
delegates awarded proportionally on both sides
there have been no polls done on either side since 12/14/07

California
D: Clinton but barely (<3%)>delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats
"Winner-takes all" by Congressional District for the Republicans

Colorado
D: Obama but barely (<3%)>10%
delegates awarded proportionally on both sides

Connecticut
D: Obama but barely (<3%)>10%
delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats
"Winner-takes-all" for the Republicans

Delaware
D: Clinton by 3-6%
R: McCain by 7-10%
delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats
"Winner-takes-all" for the Republicans

Georgia
D: Obama by >10%
R: Huckabee but barely (<3%>delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats
"Winner-takes-all" for the Republicans

Idaho
D: Obama by >10% <--I'm calling this on absolutely nothing, as the last poll in 7/07 had Al Gore in it (and winning), which is a group that you would assume, naturally, would gravitate towards the Clintons, but I think he has become something of a superhero for the "younger set" and I think those who would choose him would gravitate towards the more liberal Obama... plus, the environment is a big issue out there, and Obama has the better environmental record (it's hard to tarnish your record in six years, isn't it?) delegates awarded proportionally for both sides

Illinois
D: Obama by >10%
R: McCain by >10%
delegates awarded proportionally for both sides

Kansas
D: Obama but barely (<3%)>delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats

Massachusetts
D: Clinton by >10%
R: Romney by >10%
delegates awarded proportionally for both sides

Missouri
D: Clinton by 3-6%
R: McCain but barely (<3%>delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats
"Winner-takes-all" for the Republicans

Minnesota
D: Clinton 7-10%
R: McCain >10%
delegates awarded proportionally for both sides

Montana
R: Romney, but barely (close second: McCain) <--I'm calling this on nothing, as there have been no polls in Montana, and I'm assuming, like in Kansas with Obama, Romney will carry most of this area of the country delegates awarded proportionally for both sides

New Jersey
D: Clinton by 3-6%
R: McCain by >10%
delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats
"Winner-takes-all" for the Republicans

New Mexico
D: Clinton but barely (<3%)>delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats

New York
D: Clinton by >10%
R: McCain by >10%
delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats
"Winner-takes-all" for the Republicans

North Dakota
D: Clinton by >10%
R: Romney by >10%
there have been no polls or news about anyone and North Dakota, so I'm just guessing here; McCain and Obama may take it
delegates awarded proportionally for both sides

Oklahoma
D: Clinton >10%
R: McCain by 3-6%
delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats
"Winner-takes-all" for the Republicans

Tennessee
D: Clinton by >10%
R: McCain but barely (<3%)>delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats
"Winner-takes-all" for the Republicans, if there is a majority (proportional if there is a plurality)

Utah
D: Obama by >10% -- there is only one poll out there by "Dan Jones" in 1/08 that has Obama way ahead, by over 20 points, so we're basing this on that and that alone; it might be a mistake as Clinton was way ahead when there was still a full Democratic field ahead of us
R: Romney by >10%
delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats
"Winner-takes-all" for the Republicans

BTW--> I have no idea if West Virginia has anything tomrow. I have so many sources saying so many things. If they have their Republican state convention tomrow, which is what CNN reports, then I'm giving it to McCain by a hefty margin. But, none of the poll sites are reporting anything will be decided tomrow. Oh, and, Obama went to go talk to the Democratic convention... today? I'm no coal miners daughter, so my attention is elsewhere.

So, I'll call this: by Wednesday, I think McCain will pretty much have the nomination locked up. Not perfectly, but he'll be so close it will almost be impossible to beat him. To the Blogging Caesar of http://www.electionprojection.com/ (another site I follow -- if you read this Caesar, I followed you REALLY close in 2004, but your move from "unbiased" to "conservative commentator" has made me stopped coming by as often) --> I take your challenge. Let's see whose edicts are right. And, btw, I so wanted to scoop you on the McCain-as-nominee edict. *Sigh* I failed. Because of the split delegates in most states with the Dems, the Obama-Clinton ticket will continue to be a big question. (And for those thinking of the "dream ticket" of Clinton-Obama in 2008 ... Roland Martin has an interesting analysis of that here: http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/04/roland.martin/index.html . . . do I agree? somewhat; I'm sure Mrs. Clinton will not want to be VP)

And, btw, I was wrong about the surprise endorsement (I really was expecting Bill Richardson to say something today), so god only knows how much of this is right.

ELECTION 2008: A couple of thoughts on Clinton...

...thirty hours before Super Tuesday begins.

There's always a lot of talk about "momentum" with the early primaries (IA/NH/NV/SC), but there were two possible courses that these primaries could have gone, and I suspect neither one of them would have been good for her:

a) She wins all four (or 3 of 4 -- I don't think she ever had a chance in SC). Because she then becomes the "super juggernaut" of the Democratic election, I think other people would have become more sympathetic towards Obama and would have thought "well, she's going to win anyways." Also we would have had "Clinton burnout" by the time we got to this point.

b) She wins one of four or two of four (which she did... actually, she's won four of six, but Michigan and Florida were stripped of their delegates due to moving their primaries up without permission... the GOP in both states did the same thing, but they were only penalized with half of their delegates). Clearly, this is the situation we are facing now. And she's slipped a bit in the polls. But let's point out the Super Tuesday states that she is probably gonna win: New York, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Minnesota, Arkansas, and Tennessee (no really, I'm not joking).

And the ones Obama is almost guaranteed to win in: Georgia, Illinois.

That leaves a couple open, including California, which we were all sure would be definitively Clinton. But, Cali, with ALL of its delegates (370) is going to be an interesting call. Because since it now will be a close race, regardless, each candidate will likely get the SAME number of delegates, within 10 at least, so can we really call either side a "win?"

On that note, should we really be "calling" states in the primaries? With the grand majority of states splitting the delegate count... excepting a landslide, is it fair to say that "so-and-so won the state" when, most of the time, they are only getting a portion of the delegates. In reality, if you have a third person who gets no more than 4% of the vote in each state, and one person "wins" every state by less than 2%, the whole freaking system goes out the window.

What's really funny, btw, is the Kennedy situation. So, the Kennedy's endorsed Obama because he's got that whole "young, pretty" thing going for him -- they did it, I think, so that they could still hold some influence should he be the nominee. Schwarzenegger then endorsed McCain... his wife, Maria Shriver, is a Kennedy. I told TY last night that, I though, it was likely that he did this so that the Kennedy's would have some sort of influence either direction.

That is, until Maria Shriver endorsed Obama.

What?

Regardless of what happens, I'll be at work tomorrow for Super Tuesday, so I'll have access to a computer and I can tell you what happens.

But I'll post my predictions tonight, after the final polls are run tomorrow (Kansas, btw, hasn't had a Dem poll done since May 2007, but Zogby -- I think -- has one coming out tomorrow). But I will make one prediction for today (Monday): there will be a surprise endorsement today from someone. I can't guess on the Republican side, but John Edwards (whose part of the electorate could sway the entire thing) has not endorsed anyone, nor has Bill Richardson (who is Latino, is popular amongst that population, and... guess whom he watched the Super Bowl with today? Bill Clinton... and Hillary is behind in the polls in New Mexico)