Oy! Republican Shenanigans!

First off, we have Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY) who is threatening to resign from the Senate if the Republican Party doesn't lay off and stop asking him to not run in 2010. The situation in Kentucky is turning into one of the juiciest things heating up, no? Well, that and the whole Minnesota Senator thing which, at this point, I think we're all just over.

From the Courier-Journal (out of Louisville):

Already in conflict with his party’s leaders, Sen. Jim Bunning has reportedly said privately that if he is hindered in raising money for his re-election campaign he is ready with a response that would be politically devastating for Senate Republicans: his resignation.

The Kentucky Republican suggested that possible scenario at a campaign fundraiser for him on Capitol Hill earlier this week, according to three sources who asked not to be identified because of the politically sensitive nature of Bunning’s remarks.

The implication, they said, was that Bunning would allow Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear, a Democrat, to appoint his replacement — a move that could give Democrats the 60 votes they need to block Republican filibusters in the Senate.

“I would get the last laugh. Don’t forget Kentucky has a Democrat governor,” one of the sources quoted Bunning as saying.

“The only logical extension of that comment is, ‘(Make me mad) … enough and I’ll resign, and then you’ve got 60 Democrats,’ ” said another source who was present at the event.

This is funny because I was just reading about the 17th Amendment in re Roland Burris and was amused by the whole process of gubernatorial appointments to the US Senate for open seats. Anyways, Bunning is insane, but brilliant... which makes him dangerous.

For the moment, he's the Republican Blagojevich.

Yea, and, apparently, Sarah Palin remains at the head of the Republican Party Presidential wanna-be's for 2012. Palin has 29% support, with Huckabee just 3 points behind, and Romney 5 points behind MH. I just have this to say about polling this far out: even a year and a half out, we were all pretty sure Hillary Clinton was going to be the Democratic nominee, and Giuliani the Republican, right? Right. Worthless, but it tells us about the usefulness of polls at this point.

And I really should watch Jindal's speech, shouldn't I? The exorcist either was brilliant or a waste of everyone's time.

Which is not that dissimilar to most people's feelings on Sarah Palin.

Funny -- I think this is the first time I've ever written about Bobby Jindal. Weird. (Thanks to Electoral-Vote.com for the updates.)

Kentucky Trying to Ban Gay Adoption

I am so over the anti-gay adoption thing. Outside of Florida, has this worked anywhere? (Right, well, Arkansas... but I'm still blaming Huckabee on that.) Even the Florida thing is going away, I think, shortly.

From Pink News:

A state Senator in Kentucky has introduced a bill that will ban unmarried couples from adoption.

Human rights group The Fairness Campaign called Senator Gary Tapp’s bill "deceptively-worded."

"It is identical to a measure recently passed in Arkansas that prohibits adoption or foster care by an applicant 'cohabiting with a sexual partner outside of a marriage that is legally valid in Kentucky'," the group said.

"The language of the bill renders not just same-gender couples unfit to parent, but countless heterosexual couples that could serve as "next of kin" placement for children in need.

"The state would be forced to provide millions in additional foster care, an irresponsible burden to add to the Commonwealth's economic crisis."

And, yes, kids, that is a picture of State Senator Gary Tapp above. Sad, isn't it?

Jeez. Let's just kill this one soon. Go to the Fairness Campaign to find out how.

GAY STUFF: Lawrence King (pt. III)

Thanks to the Bilerico Project for this.

Hillary's comment on the death of Lawrence King, no word on if she showed up anywhere to mourn:

I was deeply saddened by the recent death of 15-year-old Lawrence King who was killed at his school in Oxnard, CA. No one should face intimidation or violence, particularly at school, because of their sexual orientation or the way they express their gender identity.

We must finally enact a federal hate crimes law to ensure that gay, lesbian and transgender Americans are protected against violent, bias-motivated crimes. We must and a unified message that hate-based crime will not be tolerated.

Obama's comment on the same:

It was heartbreaking to learn about Lawrence King’s death, and my thoughts and prayers go out to his family. King’s senseless death is a tragic example of the corrosive effect that bigotry and fear can have in our society. It’s also an urgent reminder that we need to do more in our schools to foster tolerance and an acceptance of diversity; that we must enact a federal hate crimes law that protects all LGBT Americans; and that we must recommit ourselves to becoming active and engaged parents, citizens and neighbors, so that bias and bigotry cannot take hold in the first place. We all have a responsibility to help this nation live up to its founding promise of equality for all.

McCain's comment on the same:

...?

Huckabee's comment on the same:

...?

ELECTION 2008: New Mexico...

So, um, anyone else caught that the New Mexico primary is still out? Yes, at 2pm this afternoon, with 98% of the precincts counted, there were less than *200* votes separating Barack and Hillary.

Not that it matters, except it will make those nice colorful maps everyone uses more pleasant for Hillary. Because, that close of a race, they will get the exact same number of delegates.

But I'm going to ask the question that should be asked: How much do those maps matter? If you go to www.uselectionatlas.org ... even though Clinton is AHEAD, it is starting to look like Obama is because he grabbed those nice big western states. Maybe Hillary should be pushing for Montana -- because I'll bet you it's one of those states that candidates overlook. SCF, reporting from Macon, Georgia, and his girlfriend made a good point: Huckabee was the only Republican who really spent time in Georgia. And he won it.

Maybe the Montana's, Wyoming's, and Dakota's are not that much different. How much time DO candidates spin in these "small prize" states that make the map the right color???

OH, and PS, the conservatives are talking about running a third party candidate if McCain is the nominee. I'll say it now: go ahead. Ross Perot did such a good job for the first Clinton (And Nader so good for Gore).

ELECTION 2008: I'm going to say this a month ahead of time...

Huckabee will win Texas.

Added later:
I really like how the yikes! blog (http://yikes101.wordpress.com/2008/02/06/super-tuesday-oh-what-a-night/) summed up the Republican race: "maverick" (or, my spin, "warhawk") vs "corporate" vs "evangelical."

I prefer the Democrat's decision based on leadership qualities to the Republicans decision based on ideology.

ELECTION 2008: First Result Post -- 1930

We have the first results back, and I'm already wrong - HA! So, we'll see how the rest of the night goes!

CORRECT
Georgia
Prediction: Obama by >10%
Actual: Exit Polls showing him ahead 64-30

Incorrect
West Virginia
Prediction: I ain't no coal miner's daughter (no prediction)
Actual: Caucus has Huckabee 52-47 over Romney -- 1% McCain -- apparently, when it seemed like Romney would take a plurality over McCain, the McCain supporters threw their support after the first vote behind Huckabee. Interesting -- tit makes sense as the McCain-Romney fight is the real fight, with Huckabee going after a third, but I still thought McCain supporters would prefer Romney's rigid fiscalism to Huckabee's social conservatism.

We are not going to call the Georgia Republican race yet, as there are very few polls in and Huckabee (31%) is still fairly close to McCain (36%) and they've only counted like 2000 votes -- ie, still too close to call.

Next set comes in: 8pm with Connecticut, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Delaware, Alabama, Missouri, and Oklahoma. We should be able to call Mass, NJ, OK, AL, and IL at that point, but we'll be waiting on the rest.

ELECTION 2008: 50TH BLOG SPECTACULAR

Predictions for Super Tuesday:

PLEASE NOTE: When editing this post again and again and again, the HTML has gotten messed up somehow. I think I've fixed most of it... but, for example, I lost three predictions at one point. So, just stick with me and tell me what I've missed.

Alabama
D: Obama by 3-6%
R: McCain by 3-6% (Huckabee may pull a little closer)
delegates awarded proportionally on both sides

Alaska
D: I'm holding off saying either way, as there's an interesting catch here: Mike Gravel who is still on the ballot. There is a possibility that he may take his home state. I'm going to "say" that Gravel will take it in a landslide, but, if not, my next guess is that Clinton will win by 3-6%.
R: McCain by >10%
delegates awarded proportionally on both sides
there have been no polls done in Alaska

Arizona
D: Clinton by 3-6%
R: McCain by >10%
delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats
"Winner-takes-all" for the Republicans

Arkansas
D: Clinton by >10%
R: Huckabee by >10%
delegates awarded proportionally on both sides
there have been no polls done on either side since 12/14/07

California
D: Clinton but barely (<3%)>delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats
"Winner-takes all" by Congressional District for the Republicans

Colorado
D: Obama but barely (<3%)>10%
delegates awarded proportionally on both sides

Connecticut
D: Obama but barely (<3%)>10%
delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats
"Winner-takes-all" for the Republicans

Delaware
D: Clinton by 3-6%
R: McCain by 7-10%
delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats
"Winner-takes-all" for the Republicans

Georgia
D: Obama by >10%
R: Huckabee but barely (<3%>delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats
"Winner-takes-all" for the Republicans

Idaho
D: Obama by >10% <--I'm calling this on absolutely nothing, as the last poll in 7/07 had Al Gore in it (and winning), which is a group that you would assume, naturally, would gravitate towards the Clintons, but I think he has become something of a superhero for the "younger set" and I think those who would choose him would gravitate towards the more liberal Obama... plus, the environment is a big issue out there, and Obama has the better environmental record (it's hard to tarnish your record in six years, isn't it?) delegates awarded proportionally for both sides

Illinois
D: Obama by >10%
R: McCain by >10%
delegates awarded proportionally for both sides

Kansas
D: Obama but barely (<3%)>delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats

Massachusetts
D: Clinton by >10%
R: Romney by >10%
delegates awarded proportionally for both sides

Missouri
D: Clinton by 3-6%
R: McCain but barely (<3%>delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats
"Winner-takes-all" for the Republicans

Minnesota
D: Clinton 7-10%
R: McCain >10%
delegates awarded proportionally for both sides

Montana
R: Romney, but barely (close second: McCain) <--I'm calling this on nothing, as there have been no polls in Montana, and I'm assuming, like in Kansas with Obama, Romney will carry most of this area of the country delegates awarded proportionally for both sides

New Jersey
D: Clinton by 3-6%
R: McCain by >10%
delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats
"Winner-takes-all" for the Republicans

New Mexico
D: Clinton but barely (<3%)>delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats

New York
D: Clinton by >10%
R: McCain by >10%
delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats
"Winner-takes-all" for the Republicans

North Dakota
D: Clinton by >10%
R: Romney by >10%
there have been no polls or news about anyone and North Dakota, so I'm just guessing here; McCain and Obama may take it
delegates awarded proportionally for both sides

Oklahoma
D: Clinton >10%
R: McCain by 3-6%
delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats
"Winner-takes-all" for the Republicans

Tennessee
D: Clinton by >10%
R: McCain but barely (<3%)>delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats
"Winner-takes-all" for the Republicans, if there is a majority (proportional if there is a plurality)

Utah
D: Obama by >10% -- there is only one poll out there by "Dan Jones" in 1/08 that has Obama way ahead, by over 20 points, so we're basing this on that and that alone; it might be a mistake as Clinton was way ahead when there was still a full Democratic field ahead of us
R: Romney by >10%
delegates awarded proportionally for the Democrats
"Winner-takes-all" for the Republicans

BTW--> I have no idea if West Virginia has anything tomrow. I have so many sources saying so many things. If they have their Republican state convention tomrow, which is what CNN reports, then I'm giving it to McCain by a hefty margin. But, none of the poll sites are reporting anything will be decided tomrow. Oh, and, Obama went to go talk to the Democratic convention... today? I'm no coal miners daughter, so my attention is elsewhere.

So, I'll call this: by Wednesday, I think McCain will pretty much have the nomination locked up. Not perfectly, but he'll be so close it will almost be impossible to beat him. To the Blogging Caesar of http://www.electionprojection.com/ (another site I follow -- if you read this Caesar, I followed you REALLY close in 2004, but your move from "unbiased" to "conservative commentator" has made me stopped coming by as often) --> I take your challenge. Let's see whose edicts are right. And, btw, I so wanted to scoop you on the McCain-as-nominee edict. *Sigh* I failed. Because of the split delegates in most states with the Dems, the Obama-Clinton ticket will continue to be a big question. (And for those thinking of the "dream ticket" of Clinton-Obama in 2008 ... Roland Martin has an interesting analysis of that here: http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/04/roland.martin/index.html . . . do I agree? somewhat; I'm sure Mrs. Clinton will not want to be VP)

And, btw, I was wrong about the surprise endorsement (I really was expecting Bill Richardson to say something today), so god only knows how much of this is right.