ELECTION 2008: OHIO/CINNKY: Voter Roles

Thanks to the ElectionGeek blog for bringing this up...

CINCINNATI (AP) - Close to one in every three newly registered Ohio voters will end up on court-ordered lists being sent to county election boards because they have some discrepancy in their records, an elections spokesman said Wednesday.

Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner estimated that an initial review found that about 200,000 newly registered voters reported information that did not match motor-vehicle or Social Security records, Brunner spokesman Kevin Kidder said. Some discrepancies could be as simple as a misspelling, while others could be more significant.

Via the AP. Bring ... it ... on.

PS I just realized that my name could be on those lists... I changed my address in the last year... but not my BMV address or my registration address.

ELECTION 2008: Weekly Poll Estimates... 7-18-08

All things said, I think it's important to point out a great article here over at Election Geek. Here's a perfect quote before we get into the polls and the projections for this week:

Most Americans, those in the center and the suburbs and rural parts of this nation, don’t make their minds up until after the conventions, the debates and the bulk of the coverage is over. They decide in the final weeks and days and they do it with a gut feeling of whom they “like” more or which candidate shares their values or their vision for that time and place.

So in short not one bit of the polling matters. All we know is that the president is unpopular, the World is moving rapidly and everything we think we know will change.

This Week's Estimates...

ElectionProjection.com: 311 (BO), 227 (JM)
BO+5 due to Nevada switching for no clear reason, I can't seem to find the poll he made that call on.

Electoral Vote: 320 (BO), 204 (JM)
JM-14 due to Missouri (!!!!) and North Dakota now being listed as "ties." A recent poll shows BO has pulled ahead enough to throw off this sites laws of averages, and therefore call this one dead even in Missouri.

Election Junkie: 306 (BO), 232 (JM)
JM+14. I'm not quite sure why the numbers are changing here like they are, as I don't follow him as religiously as some of the other sites. However, he has a tendency to throw out outlier polls, unlike some other sites that treat them all equally. SO, his numbers may be a tad more reliable. His new prediction discussion is here, and I'm sure you've heard that John McCain is rising in the national polls which he discusses here.

Cold Hearted Truth: 293 (BO), 245 (JM)
No change.

270toWin.com: 259 (BO), 151 (JM)
Using the new link they emailed to me! I'm not listing any changes because I'm foolish and couldn't seem to get any of the numbers right! LOL! So, these stand alone but also list Missouri, Nevada, and North Dakota as ties. This one also lists South Dakota as a tie -- I mean, it, ND, and Montana are demographically similarly so it makes sense if those two are going, this one would too... And there was a poll that listed JM only ahead by 4 there on 7-9-08 by Ramussen, so we'll see if that was an outlier or a predictor of things to come...

USElectionAtlas: 268 (BO), 172 (JM)
JM-16, due to Missouri and Nevada listed as "ties" now. There's the poll I couldn't find on ElectionProjection (actually, I could, I just thought it was referring to something else). It was a Ramussen poll dated yesterday showing Obama ahead there by 2.

Last Week's Estimates...

ElectionProjection.com: 306 (BO), 232 (JM)
Electoral Vote: 320 (BO) 218 (JM)
Election Junkie: 306 (BO), 218 (JM)
Coldhearted Truth: 293 (BO), 245 (JM)
270toWin.com: 185 (BO), 174 (JM)
USElectionAtlas: 268 (BO), 188 (JM)

ELECTION 2008: Montana and South Dakota

Unless you're living under a rock, then you know today is the last day of the primary season. Montana and South Dakota go up today, and, despite a last minute poll that shows Clinton way ahead in SD by the American Research Group (see here) and with a fighting chance in Montana, then Barack Obama will finally close the deal. If not completely, within 20 votes, which is silly to say he can't get the nomination at that point.

From the AP here.

And from Politico here.

Both articles from ElectionGeek's ongoing coverage and updating today.

And today we have the first black candidate for President from a major party!!! Congratulations, Obama. Oh, and as of today, this blog is:



(this is dangerous, as many of you know, as only two major candidates I have ever voted for -- T. Strickland and S. Brown -- have gotten into office and they both won in a landslide; every other major candidate, Senators, Governors, or Presidents, have lost)

(img courtesy the Barack Obama website)

ELECTION 2008: Barack Obama, nominee???

(from the ElectionGeek blog)

Looks like Obama will declare the 2025 number tonight. (CNN reports the same, and the numbers.)

It's not true, but it's close enough to the truth for him to be able to say it.

And we have a nominee.

And many many thoughts to the Kennedy's.

ELECTION 2008: Dean's response to Michigan and Florida

(thanks to Election Geek for this)

In response to this morning's question about re-running the MI/FL (we'll call them the MILF primaries), Howard Dean, hugely pressured today to say something, has finally said something substantive about the possibility (other than "that's against the rules, guys"):

"We’re glad to hear that the Governors of Michigan and Florida are willing to lend their weight to help resolve this issue. As we’ve said all along, we strongly encourage the Michigan and Florida state parties to follow the rules, so today’s public overtures are good news. The rules, which were agreed to by the full DNC including representatives from Florida and Michigan over 18 months ago, allow for two options. First, either state can choose to resubmit a plan and run a party process to select delegates to the convention; second, they can wait until this summer and appeal to the Convention Credentials Committee, which determines and resolves any outstanding questions about the seating of delegates. We look forward to receiving their proposals should they decide to submit new delegate selection plans and will review those plans at that time. The Democratic Nominee will be determined in accordance with party rules, and out of respect for the presidential campaigns and the states that did not violate party rules, we are not going to change the rules in the middle of the game.

“Through all the speculation, we should also remember the overwhelming enthusiasm and turnout that we have already seen, and respect the voters of the ten states who have yet to have their say.

“As we head towards November, our nominee must have the united support of a strong Democratic Party that’s ready to fight and ready to beat John McCain. After seven years of Republican rule, I am confident that we will elect a Democratic president who will fight for America’s families in the White House. Now we must hear from the voters in twelve states and territories who have yet to make their voices heard.”

IE: The states have to come up with a way to do this, resubmit their idea (including a plan to pay for it), and do it by June 10. Per ElectionGeek (who, btw, I discovered was a McCain supporter, which is funny as it's the first true McCain-support blog I've read... tells you what I'm reading), both governors of MILF have expressed a desire to re-run the primaries.

ELECTION 2008: Hillary takes Texas

Hillary wins the Texas primary... by about 4-5 percent. Congratulations :-).

But, everyone who is watching, knows that there are other things afoot: the Texas CAUCUS? Who the hell made this crazy system up.

My new favorite blog in the world, ElectionGeek, has an explanation here, but, I have to say, I still have no f***ing clue as to what's going on down there. As of right now, it's 5% reporting with Obama ahead 56-44. But that's how we started the primary, too, so God only knows what's going on.

If Obama wins the caucus (67 delegates), and Hillary wins the primary (126 delegates), with as close as they are, guess what? It's a wash and they end up with the same number coming out of Texas.

Except tomrow's headline is: BIG NIGHT FOR CLINTON -- WINS IN TEXAS, OHIO, AND RHODE ISLAND GIVE NEW LIFE TO HER CAMPAIGN.

Which is more valuable than the actual wins and numbers, as Obama found out.