Friday, July 18, 2008

ELECTION 2008: Weekly Poll Estimates... 7-18-08

All things said, I think it's important to point out a great article here over at Election Geek. Here's a perfect quote before we get into the polls and the projections for this week:

Most Americans, those in the center and the suburbs and rural parts of this nation, don’t make their minds up until after the conventions, the debates and the bulk of the coverage is over. They decide in the final weeks and days and they do it with a gut feeling of whom they “like” more or which candidate shares their values or their vision for that time and place.

So in short not one bit of the polling matters. All we know is that the president is unpopular, the World is moving rapidly and everything we think we know will change.

This Week's Estimates... 311 (BO), 227 (JM)
BO+5 due to Nevada switching for no clear reason, I can't seem to find the poll he made that call on.

Electoral Vote: 320 (BO), 204 (JM)
JM-14 due to Missouri (!!!!) and North Dakota now being listed as "ties." A recent poll shows BO has pulled ahead enough to throw off this sites laws of averages, and therefore call this one dead even in Missouri.

Election Junkie: 306 (BO), 232 (JM)
JM+14. I'm not quite sure why the numbers are changing here like they are, as I don't follow him as religiously as some of the other sites. However, he has a tendency to throw out outlier polls, unlike some other sites that treat them all equally. SO, his numbers may be a tad more reliable. His new prediction discussion is here, and I'm sure you've heard that John McCain is rising in the national polls which he discusses here.

Cold Hearted Truth: 293 (BO), 245 (JM)
No change. 259 (BO), 151 (JM)
Using the new link they emailed to me! I'm not listing any changes because I'm foolish and couldn't seem to get any of the numbers right! LOL! So, these stand alone but also list Missouri, Nevada, and North Dakota as ties. This one also lists South Dakota as a tie -- I mean, it, ND, and Montana are demographically similarly so it makes sense if those two are going, this one would too... And there was a poll that listed JM only ahead by 4 there on 7-9-08 by Ramussen, so we'll see if that was an outlier or a predictor of things to come...

USElectionAtlas: 268 (BO), 172 (JM)
JM-16, due to Missouri and Nevada listed as "ties" now. There's the poll I couldn't find on ElectionProjection (actually, I could, I just thought it was referring to something else). It was a Ramussen poll dated yesterday showing Obama ahead there by 2.

Last Week's Estimates... 306 (BO), 232 (JM)
Electoral Vote: 320 (BO) 218 (JM)
Election Junkie: 306 (BO), 218 (JM)
Coldhearted Truth: 293 (BO), 245 (JM) 185 (BO), 174 (JM)
USElectionAtlas: 268 (BO), 188 (JM)

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