ELECTION 2008: I can't wait

I have to share this with you this morning...

I am so excited about Tuesday I almost can't breathe. There is some sort of energy in me these last couple of days and it was hard to pinpoint until I found myself showing political websites to every one of my coworkers, whose disinterested stares and polite non-committal questions should have shut me up.

I can't believe it's almost here. This is by far the most exciting election I have been in with date... and I mark my first "interested" election in 1992, when I cheeringly ran up to my parents and proclaimed that I had VOTED for Bill Clinton (in our school's election) and now he's WINNING (ironically, the only time I've ever voted for a winning presidential candidate... I was a 2000 Nader voter).

I know it seems sometimes like it's been too much, that we've been dealing with this date in full drive since October 2007 when the Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani steamrollers were threatening to dominate the airwaves for the next year.

That never happened, and it's probably for the best.

John McCain is done. Period. Don't even try to argue it. With the combination of national polls showing Obama 6-13 points ahead in the popular vote and ahead by 3-10 points in ever swing state except Missouri and Georgia (and the fact that that's a swing state should tell you something, and the fact that early voting is done and... well, you can't change that vote)... there's little chance left.

I am so excited to vote on Tuesday I can barely speak, and I know I annoy people when I talk about it... I know I've annoyed so many of my readers by focusing on it so severely on this blog for the past ... in reality, it was this election that made this blog what it is...

...but, for all my jaded disinterest in the world, I have hope.

I have a tremendous amount of hope.

Such a simple little bauble... untouchable and unmeasurable, like faith or love. But I think we are all tired of numbers and dates and bills and laws... and we are all tired of having people point at us and tell us about plans and policy. I think, sometimes, we just need someone to say, "let's do this together, let's do this as best we know how, and let's be better." You can't point on a graph and say what the measure of that is...

...but when I hear McCain, I hear desperation, I hear the dream deferred I had predicted when Clinton lost. McCain's dream exploded. His was no raisin in the sun.

...and when I hear Obama, I hear better things ahead.

Thank you, Barack Obama. Thank you.

ELECTION 2008: Prediction

I officially made my prediction over at the DemConWatchBlog 2008 prediction contest. Here's my guess:

<p><strong>><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/">Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Obama: 382 EV's, 53.5% of the popular vote
Will win ALL of Kerry's states, and add (in order of likelihood): Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico (just add these three and he wins 273-265), Nevada, Virginia, Ohio (breaks 300 EV's, 311-227, can claim a mandate at this point), North Carolina/Florida (equally likely), Missouri, Georgia, North Dakota

McCain: 156 EV's, 45.5% of the popular vote
He will keep the following "new" swing states (in order of strength): West Viriginia (by 5-10%), Arizona (by 5-10%), South Dakota (by 5-10%), Montana (by 0.1-5%), and Indiana (by 0.1-3%).

My reasoning is thus: If it turns out to be an Obama landslide, those states that are polling and "swinging" a lot (Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, Missouri, North Dakota, and, less so, Ohio) will go with Obama. Those that are polling regularly close but on the side of McCain (i.e., one or two polls in the last week with an Obama edge or tied) will stay with McCain. Indiana's EV's will go into recount at least once, as will Georgia's. But I think they will split the difference.

Georgia, I am betting on Obama because of A) potential African American turnout, and B) Bob Barr told me Obama would win, and C) the Macon Telegraph endorsed Obama. For the deep, central south, that is not a small feat.

I will not be doing anymore polling updates, nor will I be adding anything about the coming polls for the next few days. At this point, only one poll will matter: the final vote count. (Barring something exceptional over the weekend like repeating polls of Obama ahead in Arizona.)

I know many, many, many of you are relieved.

PS The cynic in me is actually saying the count should be 291-247 as a more realistic number, with all Kerry going to Obama, and including only Virginia, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada. I reserve the right, on election night, to say "well, I guess cynical me was right, but I was still right." :-)

ELECTION 2008: New poll numbers

I'm happy to report that the McCain bounce is gone and it looks like we are bracing for a Barack Obama landslide!!!

Too bad the economy had to be run into the ground to make that happen.

Oh, and Charles Schumer, head of the DSCC and in charge of getting people elected to the Senate, is now openly talking about the possibility of 60 seats taken in the Senate for the Democrats. That's an unfilibusterable amount. The Republicans would be left with nothing to do but vote. This especially poignant locally since Bruce Lunsford seems to be coming up on Mitch McConnell over in Kentucky.

Let's look at some numbers, shall we? (The first "post-debate numbers" are starting to trickle in, so I thought I'd put this up before we saw the numbers come in.)

New Projections...
ElectionProjection.com (Conservative): 364 (BO), 174 (JM) -- One of the most pro-Republican sites ever and his words, that he got from Viking Pundit, was "Congratulations, President Obama." That's pretty significant. I just wish he hadn't gotten into the whole "pay to view" thing. Hey, some of us are poor and love the website. Sigh -- it means I haven't been following his excellent statistics as much. Most significant states that he's noting went blue: Missouri (few others are saying this at this point), North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida. All of them are "leans Obama."

Electoral-vote.com (Democrat): 349 (BO), 174 (JM), 15 (ties) -- Not ready, apparently, to call North Carolina even a lean Obama state yet. Still has it open to be called. Ok, maybe I was wrong on the Missouri thing -- he calls it, too, which is weird because Obama is just now pulling ahead and it's only been two polls... (His other site, EVStrength.com, has an interesting data point: if all the Election Junkie (Conservative): We're cutting this one because I don't the guy is posting anymore. Last post? September 25th. Post before that? September 6th... for the RNC.

ColdHeartedTruth (Conservative): 338 (BO), 200 (JM) Still lists North Carolina, Indiana, and Missouri as McCain states, which is a viable point. Although he's somehow under the unlikely assumption that Michigan only "leans Obama."

270towin.com (unbiased): 264 (BO), 164 (JM), 111 (tie) Something is strange about this website that I can't ever seem to find the information I'm looking for. It may be dropped next time. OH! There it goes. Swing states include: VA, NC, OH, MO, FL, NV, IN, and CO. Point to be made here: there are fewer and fewer swing states and the ones that are are big ones.

USElectionAtlas (unbiased): 329 (BO), 158 (JM), 51 (ties) We're going to start basing this number off their polling map, not their prediction map. Dave's prediction map, for some reason, mainly has the Kerry states for Obama and is the exact same number as last time.

DemConWatch (Democrat): 321 (BO), 217 (JM) They are listing the following as "tossup:" Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Colorado, and Nevada.

FiveThirtyEight.com (Democrat): 347.6 (BO), 190.4 (JM) This actually has an interesting little bit that I'm going to be talking about on the new one... that I'm adding now...

Pollster.com (unbiased): 320 (BO), 158 (JM), 60 (tie) I wonder when this would happen. Both Pollster.com and FiveThirtyEight.com are listing West Virginia as a toss up. This is the first time, but it's been closer than they've been reporting all along. In short, no one thought it would close up and would, like Montana and the Dakotas early on, start becoming redder. Nope. It's becoming bluer.

Old Projections ...
ElectionProjection.com: 273 (BO), 265 (JM)
Electoral-vote.com: 273 (BO), 265 (JM)
Election Junkie: 298 (BO), 240 (JM)
ColdHeartedTruth: 273 (BO), 265 (JM)
USElectionAtlas: 273 (BO), 265 (JM)
FiveThirtyEight.com: 312 (BO), 226 (JM)

ELECTION 2008: Virginia just changed hands...

It looks like Virgina may have officially gone blue.

Obama -- 51

McCain -- 39

Per a Suffolk University poll. Even if it is an outlier... well.. it's indicative, considering the last three polls in VA went to Obama. If VA becomes a "break out" for Obama... well, McCain just lost his chance. Especially since NH looks also out of his reach.

Kids, we might be on the verge of a landslide.

ELECTION 2008: Tie Scenarios

Ask and ye shall receive. I think the guy over at electoral-vote.com is reading (which, if you look today, show Barack ahead 282-236... with Ohio as a tie). I said I wanted a good review of what would happen if the Electoral-Vote is 269-269... And he posts his analysis:

The whole thing could make 2000 look like a clean-cut victory.

And then also posted a link to the 3Blue Dudes analysis (a great blog, as well):

So behold with fear the impending doom that a 269-269 scenario could bring on this country of ours. All the more reason for Obama to get to 270.  So if you live in NV or NH and can help swing those small states along with Colorado then do it.   Otherwise the longest election season in our country’s history will extend into the holidays and the next year and beyond. 

So there you go.

ELECTION 2008: New Electoral Vote Count Update!

ISO: A poll tracker that currently shows a John McCain win based on state-by-state polling. I would like to start tracking that, as well, but my main sources of conservative commentation -- ColdHeartedTruth, Election Junkie, and Election Projection -- all show a statistical win for Barack Obama.

OK -- so it's been well over a month before I did a comprehensive update on the election, and I'm not going to do a lot of going into anything becuase everyone is still obsessed with celebrity.

The big news, of course, is that John McCain's post-convention bounce has vanished into thin air.... and the unfavorables on that woman are going up. And, what makes things even more fun, is that it appears we have an outing in the McCain camp: Mark Buse, McCain's Chief of Staff. According to Joe.My.God., this is one of four acceptable reasons to out a public figure... when they run the program for a prominent anti-gay politician. And I think, yes, we're going to say that he's anti-gay, that McCain fellow. (This was originally posted on Michelangelo Signorile's blog, btw, who does an excellent job talking about it.)

It has also been reported that Obama seems to have conceded North Dakota, despite earlier indications he was ahead there by pulling out his staff and moving them to Mississippi and Wisconsin. Why does this matter? Because it signifies the first major move away from the 50-state solution in a state that looked like we might be able to grab. But... Mississippi? Obama must be really hoping for huge new additions to the voter rolls... though the socially conservative black vote in California may start problems for Proposition 8.

Oh, and the first debate is this Friday.

Onto the numbers, where I'm going to simply start documenting what states are "new Dem" states from the 2004 (what seems to be pickups from the 2004 election) -- please note that Barack only needs to get all the Kerry states + 3 more... pretty much any three more.

There is a very large chance that we could have a tie situtation. If Barack wins Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa, but New Hampshire goes red (this is a completely likely scenario), then the EV's split 269-269. The House then decides the election with each state getting one vote. There's a great rundown on what that would look like out there on the interweb somewhere that I read. I will try to find it again because it is worth the read and shows a likely John McCain win (if we assume that the representatives from each state, appropriately, voted for the candidate that their state went for). A tie, then, works well into the hands of the Republicans even assuming a complete Dem take-over of the House (also very likely).

Oh, and PS, I really don't think either Pennsylvania or Michigan are as "swingy" as everyone makes them out to be. Rather, I think there is almost no chance either will go McCain unless it's a McCain landslide.

As a reminder, this is what the 2004 electoral vote map looked like...



New Projections...
ElectionProjection.com: 273 (BO), 265 (JM) -- Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa (the second two look to be less "swing" this time around) There also seems to be an interesting shift in both the Governor's races, with Washington swinging right, and a Senate race or two on this site.

Electoral-Vote.com: 273 (BO), 265 (JM) -- Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa. I watch this site daily ... he updates at 6:00am. Also, he started a new site, evstrength.com, though I prefer his old method. Check out the map from Sept. 18, whic was the highest point McCain had reached, when Pennsylvania started to swing -- it is the only winning scenario that any site has yet published.

Election Junkie: 298 (BO), 240 (JM) -- Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Nevada, and Ohio. This is really really old data, publishedon 8/30/08, so pre-convention.

ColdHeartedTruth: 273 (BO), 265 (JM) -- CO, NM, IA. Are you seeing a pattern here, kids?

270toWin.com: 202 (BO), 163 (JM), 173 (ties) -- these are the "strong state numbers." Swing states listed: WI, MI, MO (which is almost out of the discussion these days it seems), CO, NV, PA, OH, IN, VA, NH, NC, FL, and MN. A lot more Dem swings than Rep swings.

USElection Atlas: 273 (BO), 265 (JM) -- again, more of the same. CO, NM, IA.

DemConWatch: 284 (BO), 254 (JM) -- I'm not quite sure I understand where they get this number from -- but I like it!!!

FiveThirtyEight.com: 312 (BO), 226 (JM) -- this is the only site that shows a "landslide" (>300EV's) for Barack, it's also the only one that has VA still listed as blue. However, it's also the only site that weights the polls based on accuracy and when they were done. Something to think about...


Last Post's (8/13/08) Projections...
ElectionProjection.com: 298 (BO), 240 (JM)
Electoral-Vote.com: 289 (BO), 249 (JM)
Election Junkie: 278 (BO), 260 (JM)
ColdHeartedTruth: 298 (BO), 240 (JM)
270toWin.com: 231 (BO), 154 (BO), 153 (ties)
USElectionAtlas: 293 (BO), 245 (JM)
DemConWatch: 299 (BO), 239 (JM)

I know you are all so excited I did this. Just, please, humor me and read :-).

ELECTION 2008: Sad to report...

...it appears that one of my favorite election watching sites, Electoral-Vote.com, is now reporting, for the first time, that Barack Obama has fallen under the 270 EV mark in the polls.

As of today's polls on Electoral-Vote.com: 264 (BO) to 261 (JM). JM ahead in the following swing states: Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada, and Florida. Virginia still a tie.

Damn, damn, damn, damn, damn.

Oh, and I am starting to believe Hillary is the VP candidate. Why??? He needs a bulldog. Everyone else mentioned ain't nobody compared to a Clinton to go after a Republican.

Besides, I bet all this build up of the Clintons is nothing more than to energize herbase.

I believe it will be Barack-illy 2008.

ELECTION 2008: Finally! An update!!!!

John Edwards, John Edwards, John Edwards. It makes me sad, but it happened. I don't think, however, it will play that well in the general election, but it certainly bars him from the Convention (I believe it has been confirmed that neither him nor his wife will be speaking -- anyone surprised???). However, we've seen this whole "stand by your man" routine before (speaking of E. Edwards); is Elizabeth Edwards thinking about politics in the future??? Well timed, too, btw, John Edwards... on the first day of the Olympics. And right before an invasion. Easily buried story.

There's a sad rhetoric that major female voices in American politics -- or at least the celebrity female voices -- are wives of male politicians. Ahem -- Liddy Dole and Hillary Clinton. I will say this right now: I would die to see a Dole-Clinton fight again, but this time with the wives. I really believe, in this one, Dole will win.

So Obama is slipping a little in all the polls. It's August. The election is boring right now, nothing is going on, though the Georgia-Russia situation is definitely an interesting test for both of them. Like most of the world -- and President Bush -- Obama called on Russia and Georgia to accept ceasefires, and supported Georgia and blasted Russia's militarism. McCain, meanwhile, supports Russia's decision. Interesting. Forecast of things to come??? Oh, and, apparently, McCain has said that it would be wise to expell Russia from the G8.... riiiiiight. Is there some giant plot on the part of the Republicans to make him seem as folksy as our current President???

The Convention is shaking up -- FINALLY!!! :-) And Hillary supporters seem to be planning some sort of march on the Convention??? That's silly. One thing to the PUMA (party unity my ass) voters: COME ON!!!! :-) Hillary, though not encouraging the situation, doesn't seem to be helping it either. Although I can't fault her for simply acknowledging that there are a lot of REALLY REALLY pro-Clinton supporters still out there, and that they want to be heard at the Convention. Simple solution: take it to a real floor vote, leave them both in the kitty, and have it ultimately said: BARACK WON. Period, end of story. She's a prime-time speaker, so the country will still hear her. But Tim sent me an interesting Op-Ed piece in the NYT about HRC:

While Obama was spending three hours watching “The Dark Knight” five time zones away, and going to a fund-raiser featuring “Aloha attire” and Hawaiian pupus, Hillary was busy planning her convention.

You can almost hear her mind whirring: She’s amazed at how easy it was to snatch Denver away from the Obama saps. Like taking candy from a baby, except Beanpole Guy doesn’t eat candy. In just a couple of weeks, Bill and Hill were able to drag No Drama Obama into a swamp of Clinton drama.

As for the VEEPSTAKES... I want to say this right now: I have four major people I'm rooting for. Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas (she's a lot like Clinton, but less dirty), Evan Bayh of Indiana (it would solidify the midwest for Obama and he's really cool), Hillary Clinton (duh, but I don't think this will happen), and Bill Richardson (though I really doubt this will happen). In all likelihood, Obama will probably pick up Kaine from Virginia, though I think the far wiser decision is Bayh. Can we have two people with funny names on the ballot though (Obama-Bayh... Barack-Evan...), especially when McCain-Romney sounds so presidential???

Current Estimates...

ElectionProjection.com: 298 (BO), 240 (JM)
Missouri and Virginia are the big changes here back to McCain, and, like most sites, Montana, ND, and SD have all gone back to red -- not a big surprise.

Electoral-Vote.com: 289 (BO), 249 (JM)
The big switch here comes from Ohio and Virginia "leaning McCain" according to the polls. That's unfortunate. Probably the more disturbing thing that comes along is his new feature -- This Day in 2004 -- which confirms that Kerry was still ahead 307-231 around this time four years ago. The conservative pundits like to point this fact out, except they leave out one major issue: Barack is not John Kerry. Kerry was barely understandable when he spoke, and he had that whole Vietnam War thing going on that, in retrospect, actually hurt him quite a bit. Obama is different.

Election Junkie: 278 (BO), 260 (JM)
This site actually lists it as the closest of all the sites, though it's hard to tell why as there's no map involved. It was actually his update (yesterday) that spurred me to update the sites...

ColdHeartedTruth: 298 (BO), 240 (JM)
Are you noticing a trend here when it comes to the numbers???

270toWin.com: 231 (BO), 154 (BO), 153 (ties)
This one is fun to watch because of the ever growing number of ties they list. Currently: NM, NV, FL, NH, MO, MI, OH, MT, SD, ND, IA, VA, and NC. That's a lot to go after this early in the game.

USElectionAtlas: 293 (BO), 245 (JM)
No major changes... even from two weeks.

NEW SITE...
DemConWatch: 299 (BO), 239 (JM)
Finally! Found a biased site for the Democrats. We had ColdHeartedTruth for the Republicans... this one, I think, will balance it all out! :-) The other two sites which state their political affiliation -- ElectionProjection and Electoral-Vote -- are so mathematical in nature that I don't believe that they are biased. In this particular circumstance, DemConWatch is the biggest Obama win, while ColdHeartedTruth is his smallest win. Is anyone surprised????

Last Week's Estimates...

ElectionProjection.com: 325 (BO), 213 (JM)
Electoral Vote: 292 (BO), 219 (JM), 27 (ties)
Election Junkie: 309 (BO), 229 (JM)
Cold Hearted Truth: 293 (BO), 245 (JM)
270toWin.com: 247 (BO), 174 (JM), 117 (ties)
USElectionAtlas: 293 (BO), 245 (JM)

ELECTION 2008: Weekly Poll Estimates... 7-18-08

All things said, I think it's important to point out a great article here over at Election Geek. Here's a perfect quote before we get into the polls and the projections for this week:

Most Americans, those in the center and the suburbs and rural parts of this nation, don’t make their minds up until after the conventions, the debates and the bulk of the coverage is over. They decide in the final weeks and days and they do it with a gut feeling of whom they “like” more or which candidate shares their values or their vision for that time and place.

So in short not one bit of the polling matters. All we know is that the president is unpopular, the World is moving rapidly and everything we think we know will change.

This Week's Estimates...

ElectionProjection.com: 311 (BO), 227 (JM)
BO+5 due to Nevada switching for no clear reason, I can't seem to find the poll he made that call on.

Electoral Vote: 320 (BO), 204 (JM)
JM-14 due to Missouri (!!!!) and North Dakota now being listed as "ties." A recent poll shows BO has pulled ahead enough to throw off this sites laws of averages, and therefore call this one dead even in Missouri.

Election Junkie: 306 (BO), 232 (JM)
JM+14. I'm not quite sure why the numbers are changing here like they are, as I don't follow him as religiously as some of the other sites. However, he has a tendency to throw out outlier polls, unlike some other sites that treat them all equally. SO, his numbers may be a tad more reliable. His new prediction discussion is here, and I'm sure you've heard that John McCain is rising in the national polls which he discusses here.

Cold Hearted Truth: 293 (BO), 245 (JM)
No change.

270toWin.com: 259 (BO), 151 (JM)
Using the new link they emailed to me! I'm not listing any changes because I'm foolish and couldn't seem to get any of the numbers right! LOL! So, these stand alone but also list Missouri, Nevada, and North Dakota as ties. This one also lists South Dakota as a tie -- I mean, it, ND, and Montana are demographically similarly so it makes sense if those two are going, this one would too... And there was a poll that listed JM only ahead by 4 there on 7-9-08 by Ramussen, so we'll see if that was an outlier or a predictor of things to come...

USElectionAtlas: 268 (BO), 172 (JM)
JM-16, due to Missouri and Nevada listed as "ties" now. There's the poll I couldn't find on ElectionProjection (actually, I could, I just thought it was referring to something else). It was a Ramussen poll dated yesterday showing Obama ahead there by 2.

Last Week's Estimates...

ElectionProjection.com: 306 (BO), 232 (JM)
Electoral Vote: 320 (BO) 218 (JM)
Election Junkie: 306 (BO), 218 (JM)
Coldhearted Truth: 293 (BO), 245 (JM)
270toWin.com: 185 (BO), 174 (JM)
USElectionAtlas: 268 (BO), 188 (JM)

ELECTION 2008: 270toWin.com

Thanks to the authors of 270toWin.com who pointed me to a more precise polling estimates as to who will be winning the EV's on their site. Here is their email to me:

Hi,

Thanks for including 270toWin in your recaps. In terms of reporting our current polling estimates, you might want to work off this map:

http://www.270towin.com/2008_polls/mccain_obama/

The home page interactive map, which will eventually align with the above map as we get closer to the election, is changed less frequently as we base it more on historical trends. For example, while North Dakota and Montana are polling close right now, we’re not yet convinced they’ll actually really be in play come Election Day.

They were so nice. This changes their estimate (at the moment) to: 229 (BO), 160 (JM)-- still not a clear winner, but the numbers are higher. Damn, I think I got those numbers wrong. I'm stupid and can't read graphs. Much love

And they're right about Montana and North Dakota. There is always, of course, the possibility of the Bradley Effect in play here.

---------

Also, random point from FOXNews this morning... is John McCain eligible to run for President? He was born in the Panama Canal Zone in 1936 and thus, per Article, Section 1 of the Constitution, not a "natural born citizen." However, his parents were both US citizens serving a military purpose (his dad was in the Navy -- cue the Village People!!!!). The full wording of the Article is:

No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States.

Here are some people that believe that: American Chaos, Real Truth Online, and the LRC Blog.

Shockingly we may have a good answer from an MSNBC article, which indicates the intent of the forefathers, who passed a law in 1790 that said anyone born to US Citizens outside of the country is a natural born citizen. The text is here:

"And the children of citizens of the United States that may be born beyond sea, or outside the limits of the United States, shall be considered as natural born citizens." (from a great summary here, which also includes a Supreme Court case ruling in 1927 that indicates Mr. McCain is OK)

And there is a great article from the International Herald Times discussing the issue.

However, the Senate passed a non-binding resolution on April 30, 2008 stating that he is a natural-born citizen. Even if it were to come to court, I think there is enough indications that it's ok.

ELECTION 2008: Weekly Update 7-10-08

Last Weeks Estimates...

Here are the (now) weekly estimates for the Electoral Vote per my favorite websites:

ElectionProjection.com: 338 (BO), 200 (JM)
Electoral Vote: 317 (BO) 221 (JM)
Election-Junkie: 306 (BO), 232 (JM)

And the ones that just report polls and don't make "predictions," just show numbers:

270toWin.com: 185 (BO), 174 (JM)
US Election Atlas: 261 (BO), 180 (JM)

This Week's Estimates...

ElectionProjection.com: 306 (BO), 232 (JM)
BO-32 due to polls showing him trailing in Nevada (EV=5) and Florida (EV=27). As a side note, and I've always sad this about the Blogging Caesar over there, he knows his shit and is probably (to my mind) the most accurate pundit.

Electoral Vote: 320 (BO) 218 (JM)
BO+3 due to a poll showing him ahead in Montana. He has a really interesting chart that comes from online polls in 32 states produced by Zogby here -- also, this guy is great as he does daily updates.

Election Junkie: 306 (BO), 218 (JM)
Per the author:

Due to another day of either worthless or no polls at all, I am going to wait until the end of the week to post my next projection.

He's right... it did seem like a really unusual week for polls, not the least of which is due to July 4 being in there and no polls done pretty much the whole weekend.

New Poll Estimates...

Coldhearted Truth: 293 (BO), 245 (JM)

There is an argument here that most of my "guessers" are conservatives. I have yet to find a good liberal EV counter. I actually prefer things like Electoral Vote, ElectionProjection, and USElectionAtlas because they are very mathematically based. So when you get to things like Election Junkie or Coldhearted Truth, you have people using polls and then interpreting.

The point? These are conservatives saying that Barack is going to win.

270toWin.com: 185 (BO), 174 (JM)
No change, but Montana, North Dakota (recent polls showing JM only 1 point ahead there), and Indiana all still listed in the McCain category.

USElectionAtlas: 268 (BO), 188 (JM)
Listing a number of changes, including Nevada going to JM; Colorado going to BO; and New Mexico, Montana, Indiana and North Dakota becoming "in play." (PLEASE NOTE: Dave Leip has the colors reversed -- John McCain is blue, and Barack is red; he has a great note on his page how the red-blue thing did not becoem standard until the 2000 election.)

--------

This little flicker from Jesse Jackson:



I have one thing to say: who the fuck cares? Jesse Jackson is a pompous ass. It's really funny that, despite people like Fox who were lambasting him for everything he does (remember him going to Southeastern Europe and walking across the border with POW's?), people now care what he thinks.

He's a smart man, but, come on guys, what value does he have anymore???

--------

No real movement on the Senate or Houses. A few more have been listed as "in play," but the general consensus is that the Republicans are just fighting back a "blue wave," spending money to defend existing seats where as the Dem's are holding pretty strong and able to challenge new seats.

--------

We're going to start watching Ohio-specific races once things settle down around here; and I will start making endorsements come August or so.

ELECTION 2008: McCain vs. Obama

You know, for some reason, I just don't care much anymore about the election. It's very strange, but true. Obama doesn't do it for me the way others have... I'm just not following as much.

What's almost unbelievable is the idea that we may have someone by the name of Barack Obama for president.

It's a funny name.

John McCain just sounds so presidential.

I'm trying to get interested in the VEEPstakes, and I have to say I have far more excitement there. Something about an unknown person stirs it in me.

Hm. Oh well.

Here are the (now) weekly estimates for the Electoral Vote per my favorite websites:

ElectionProjection.com: 338 (BO), 200 (JM)
Electoral Vote: 317 (BO) 221 (JM)
Election-Junkie: 306 (BO), 232 (JM)

And the ones that just report polls and don't make "predictions," just show numbers:

270toWin.com: 185 (BO), 174 (JM)
US Election Atlas: 261 (BO), 180 (JM)

I guess the only really interesting thing that's fueling me at the moment is that Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia have all come into play in a very real way... and Montana and North Dakota are suspect.

Fun!

Updated: added a new favorite site to the Blogroll, Pollster, which gives you a great idea and a great visual picture of how the polls are going.