Wednesday, April 16, 2008

ELECTION 2008: Quick Update

I should have been saying this all along, but:

1) Barack Obama cannot win Pennsylvania. Despite the "non-event" that is his latest statement, it's classic Democrat territory and to win over Clinton here would be a terrific coup for him, but he doesn't have that draw.

And because he doesn't have that draw and is still trying desperately to eat away at Hillary Clinton's base, I'm starting to suspect John McCain has a chance to win in November. His greatest chance is to take the South.

2) Hillary Clinton cannot win the nomination -- she is still my preferred candidate (actually, my preferred candidates go like this: 1) Bill Richardson, 2) Hillary Clinton, 3) Barack Obama), but I'm switching gears to supporting what appears to be the likely Democratic nominee.

That's right, I am now, officially, a Barack Obama supporter (unless Clinton pulls it out of her hat, which is possible, but I believe becoming more and more unlikely -- though she's very far ahead in Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Puerto Rico -- she would have to make a serious showing and probably win Oregon and North Carolina as well, both of which, I believe, are out of her reach).

Either way, it's a good year for us... let's make it the best.

3) John McCain has a lot of silly things going on with his candidacy. I wish someone would pay attention, and that it wasn't so hard to find updates about the crazy things he's saying out there. As for his VP choice, he's going to have to choose someone that's not a protestant white male... I'm starting to suspect he must. The only way he's going to be able to challenge either Clinton or Obama is to choose someone that: a) would take something from the Northeast, and he has the chance to overtake the Dem's in New York (Bloomberg anyone?), b) would take something from the minority vote, thus securing key areas like the southwest (a latino) or the southeast (an African American), and c) shows that, unlike the primary, the Republican party embraces more than the same old, same old. It needs to show diversity. And I really really don't think he's going to pick Huckabee or any of the evangelicals just because a bunch of preachers tell him to.

My question is this: if you're really going to eat at the Democratic base and bring moderates, how does a gay Republican VP sound? Do we know of any prominent ones that aren't Larry Craig? (Besides, Idaho isn't voting for a Dem anytime soon)

And that's my quick update on the election for the moment.

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