2010 Election Update

You know my love of Jennifer Brunner, but, after my experience at the Ohio Democratic Party Family Dinner about a week ago, I started to wonder, due to the overabundance of Lee Fisher stickers and absolutely no Brunner stickers, about her candidacy (especially with GOP Senate candidate Rob Portman posting $1.5million in fundraising, Fisher at $900,000, and Brunner's numbers undisclosed). When I inquired, a Fisher worker informed me, with an ironic tone, that she had said it was inappropriate to campaign at the dinner. I wonder which was right, but there are still some rumblings, and she responded sharply on her website:

Ever since I decided to give up the security of what is widely regarded as a "safe" re-election for Secretary of State and instead run for the U.S. Senate, the political insiders in Columbus and Washington began actively discouraging my candidacy. "She can’t raise the money," said many. "You shouldn’t run for the Senate if the Governor supports Lieutenant Governor Fisher," warned some Washington insiders in January. "You need to take one for the team, even though I don’t think the Lt. Gov. can win in the general election," one Congressman cautioned. "I think you have the political skills to win this election, but you need the money,” said a political mentor...

I am in this race to stay.

For the second time today, I'll say it: Snap when you say that girl. Despite expected disparities in fundraising (word of mouth, no actual source, but I think I read it somewhere) in the previous quarter of FEC reports, polls are showing a dead heat in a Fisher-Brunner matchup -- 24-21 (Quinnipiac, 7/7/09) or 22-17 (Daily KOS/Research 2000, 7/9/09). Meanwhile, KOS/Research 2000 (same article) show Fisher and Brunner polling ahead their all-but-nominated Republican counterpart, former Bush OMB director Rob Portman, by 7 and 4, respectively, or by 4 and 1, depending on whom you listen to. Portman is actually closing the gap; Republicans are finding new candidates right and left in the flagging economy, as Obama's polls numbers continue to drop. In Ohio, it's under 50% for the first time since he was elected.

Meanwhile, Democrats still look solidly ahead (second source which also shows Gov. Strickland ahead of potential GOP candidate Rep. Kasich by 5%) for 2010, though it appears Steve Chabot will be challenging Rep. Driehaus for his OH-01 (that's, uh, Cincinnati, folks) seat back in the coming election.

And that's your long-delayed 2010 election update, thought I have something bigger coming likely in the morning.

Brunner on Marriage Equality

I love women in politics, it's why I supported Hillary Clinton... well, that and because she was awesome. In 2010, Ohio will be voting for a new Senator as current Sen. Voinovich has decided to step down. One of the Democrats running is current Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner... who unabashedly supports LGBTQ marriage equality and isn't afraid to say it.

From her recent post on the Huffington Post:

After a dreadful past eight years birthed by a process fueled by hatred (yes, Ohio decided the 2004 election, using the gay marriage ban as the ultimate wedge to drive a record number of evangelical Christian and conservative voters to the polls), we now have the chance to shape the foundation of this century to be one less violent, more compassionate, more responsible and accountable, and one full of opportunity and hope. A good start is to recognize family in all the ways it emerges, for a stronger social fabric that will support us as we pursue the founding ideals of our country for years to come.

Marriage equality's time is now.

Unbelievable and beautiful. Thank you for saying it.

On the flip coin, her Democratic rival for the nomination -- current Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher -- has not always been hot on marriage equality, though has made statements in the past in support of civil unions. Last week, he had this to say to the Cleveland Plain Dealer:

"The government should be focused on creating jobs, lowering health care costs and moving us to alternative energy, instead of trying to stop individuals who want to be in a committed relationship and take responsibility for each other."

It's not rainbow flag-wavin', hugely supportive, but it looks like a softening towards the issue, as WTTE reports.

And thanks to Jason from Out With it Already for the heads up!

Tyrone Yates Not Running for Senate

Texas Liberal, one of my favorite bloggers, is reporting that Tyrone Yates will not be seeking the Senate seat that Sen. Voinovich is leaving this year. Yates' statement:

After much consideration, and in light of the serious work of the legislature in this budget crisis, I have decided to discontinue my exploratory committee and not pursue a seat for the United States Senate at this time.

I had to face the choice of running for the U.S. Senate or working to find solutions to Ohio’s critical budget problems. I choose to go to work on Ohio’s immediate fiscal stress. I am determined not to advance a personal agenda over my deep commitment to the public business. My decision not to pursue the U.S. Senate at this time in no way diminishes the serious issues I care about faced by Ohioans and the United States.

I will continue to advocate for cleaning up our banking and financial system, repairing the housing and foreclosure crisis, re-establishing a broad manufacturing role for Ohio and American workers, and a strong foreign policy reflecting America’s best impulses.

I am steadfast in my view that the Democratic Party offers the best answers to these critical dilemmas and I will work with Ohio Democrats to win the U.S. Senate seat in 2010.

I want to express appreciation to the press and my deep thanks to everyone who supported my exploratory effort including Ohio Democratic Party Chairman, Chris Redfern.

The Democratic side is heavy with powerhouse state politicians, namely Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner and Lt. Governor Lee Fisher. Both are very, very LGBTQ friendly.

2010 Ohio Senate Election Update

A couple of bits of news today about the 2010 Ohio Senate Election to replace retiring Sen. Voinovich. 

It's turning out to be a three way primary in the Democratic side between State Rep. Tyrone Yates (as yet not declared), Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, and Lt. Governor Lee Fisher. A new Quinnipiac poll pretty much knocks Yates out of the running, but shows a pretty close dead heat between Brunner and Fisher. The poll says that Fisher is preferred at 20%, followed by Brunner at 16%, and Yates at 4%. Wah-wah.

Meanwhile, though, both Fisher and Brunner are ahead of the only announced Republican, former OMB director Rob Portman -- 42-31 in a Fisher-Portman mashup, and 40-32 in a Brunner-Portman mashup. In short: the Democrats look like they are ahead and the favorites, and Fisher holds only a slight (stastically insignificant) lead over Brunner. 

And, finally, Rep. Zack Space has endorsed Fisher, thus removing another possible name from the Democratic primary, but raising my eyebrow ... after all, someone needs to be Lt. Governor. It could also be the Dems begging Space to stay in his district (SE Ohio), as the GOP is interested in taking on the district this round. 

That's Space in the picture there. He's the best looking of those mentioned :-).

Fundraising Good, Fundraising Bad

Nate Silver (of FiveThirtyEight.com) published a ranking of the best and worst fundraisers for the 2010 Senatorial Elections in the first quarter of 2009. Ohio and Kentucky make some interesting names for themselves:

Best Fundraising -- Incumbent

1. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)
2. Kristen Gillibrand (D-NY)
3. Harry Reid (D-NV)
4. John McCain (R-AZ)
5. Byron Dorgan (D-ND)

Worst Fundraising -- Incumbent

1. Roland Burris (D-IL)
2. Jim Bunning (R-KY) -- apparently the Mitch McConnell "get out of the race" shouting match is working
3. Tom Coburn (R-OK)
4. Barbara Boxer (D-CA)
5. Chuck Grassley (R-IA)

Best Fundraising -- Challenger

1. Bill White (D-TX)
2. Kendrick Meek (D-FL)
3. Rob Portman (R-OH)
4. Alexi Gioannoulias (D-IL)
5. John Sharp (D-TX)

Worst Fundraising -- Challenger

1. Roy Blunt (R-MO) (TIED WITH) Paul Hodes (D-NH)
2. Jennifer Brunner (D-OH)
3. Peter King (R-NY)
4. Marco Rubio (R-FL)

In short: Bunning and Brunner are not doing well yet, whereas Portman is doing very well. Side notes in the store mark that KY AG Mongiardo (running against Bunning) is performing amazingly well, with OH Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (running against Brunner) performing adequately well -- about 4 times better than Brunner, but only raising about 60% as much as Portman.

It's no secret that I'm a Brunner girl, but I'll be interested to see the reported numbers from 2Q.

Voting for Marriage Equality in Ohio

From the Buckeye State Blog about the Fisher-Brunner marriage bit:

I’ve realized something. Someone who’s willing to compromise on this issue before even stepping up to the fight will accomplish absolutely nothing. I think it’s more than past time for a take no prisoners push on this issue. For too long Democrats have been able to skirt around it by taking the middle ground, while the Religious Right has shown no such tolerance on the other side of this issue. If Lee Fisher won’t come out in support of gay marriage now, you can bet he’ll only fight half-heartedly at best for civil unions.

Hoo-fuckin'-rah. Thank jeebus someone is willing to say it.

Also of note in marriage news:

• Maine takes up the marriage debate tomorrow, expecting an all-day session in a 7,000 person stadium in expectation of a large turnout. 
• A surprising poll out of Siena College tags support in New York for equal marriage to be at 53% -- with only 39% responding in the negative. Nate Silver of FivethirtyEight.com runs the numbers and finds that, even if the numbers are high, other polls all tell the same thing: a plurality of New Yorkers support equal marriage.

But, remember, according to the Dem leadership, it's not time yet.

Brunner vs. Fischer: Marriage Equality

Picture from Law Dork, 2.0
Back to the upcoming (2010) election for Senate, the Gay People's Chronicle (out of Cleveland) talks about an important difference between the two declared Democratic candidates -- Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner -- for the US Senate: marriage equality. From the Chronicle:

Both [Fisher and Brunner] have longstanding relationships with the LGBT community and have used their political careers to help advance equality, making it difficult for those who vote on those issues to pick an early favorite.

That may be changing, however, as marriage equality has emerged as the issue separating the Democrats.

Brunner favors it. Fisher doesn’t, but is open to being convinced...

Brunner unequivocally believes that same-sex partners should have the right to marry. She does not put any qualifications on it, nor attempt any equivocation. It is a belief she has held publicly since 1989.

Fisher said, “I am in favor of civil unions, but I have questions about marriage.”

In his defense, Fisher, later in the article, indicates that he is still forming his opinion, specifically stating that he's not sure "whether civil unions will be sufficient or not." I think that's a credit to him. However, I am proud of my girl Jennifer for stepping up to the plate so early in support of full equality.

A few others are hinting at a run in 2010, but nothing has been made official. Tyrone Yates, for example, is currently campaigning but has not declared.

Cincy Dems and Other Bits on Election 2010

I've been really lax this week -- it's been crazy, crazy, crazy in my life here in Queer-world. I apologize for not keeping up with the world... but I promise I've got a couple coming through. Including, but not limited to, the follow-ups on the Chris Finney situation.

The Election itself for 2010 is awfully quiet. I got to meet a possible City Council nominee for the Dem's this past weekend -- he was making the rounds at a few gay meetings to introduce himself and shake hands -- and he was cute enough. Seemed supportive, overall, but I didn't get a chance to really ask him a lot of detailed questions. I'll be sure to talk more about him once the Dems, Reps, and Charterites give their nods.

The biggest thing out there is an interesting article from the Cincinnati Enquirer on State Rep. Tyrone Yates and (possibly) Commissioner Todd Portune entering the Senate race for Ohio, against the growing field that already included Jennifer Brunner (D), Lee Fisher (D), and Rob Portman (R). It's starting to look like an all-out brawl, though the Dems are looking nicely to pick it up.

However, sadly enough for Yates/Portune is that Cincy Dems do not have a strong history on the state-wide scale, from the Enquirer:

There just haven't been many in the past 40 years, as Democratic primary elections have been dominated by northeast Ohio where the highest concentration of Democratic voters lives.

The last Cincinnatian to win one of the major state offices was John Gilligan who won the governor's office 39 years ago. Even after he won it, he couldn't keep it - he lost his bid for re-election four years later.

Jerry Springer, fresh off his stint as Cincinnati mayor and council, ran in the Democratic primary for governor 1982, but came in third in a field of three.

Cincinnati-area Republicans have never had that problem - the region has produced plenty of GOP statewide candidates, from former Ohio Gov. Bob Taft and former secretary of state J. Kenneth Blackwell to former state treasurer Joe Deters.

For decades now, Democratic candidates for any of the state's constitutional offices - governor, secretary of state, auditor and treasurer - and the state's two U.S. Senate seats tend to be from parts of the state other than Cincinnati and southwest Ohio.

But there are some signs that may change soon.

"I'm not saying we have gone completely blue in Hamilton County, but everything has been moving in our direction in the last few elections,'' said Hamilton County Democratic Party chairman Tim Burke, pointing to Barack Obama's win over John McCain in Hamilton County and Steve Driehaus' ousting Republican incumbent Steve Chabot in the 1st Congressional District last fall.

A lot of the outcome is hinging on the economy -- and once very popular Gov. Strickland is starting to sink in the polls because of it (threatening his cozy position, but no one has really stepped up yet to take it on, except for a minor State Senator from Cuyahoga Falls -- please don't let me eat those words).

And all of this matters, of course, because 2011 is the redistricting year -- EEP! This is the year to be in control.

Oh, and the other big news is that Jim Bunning in Kentucky continues to plug on. I'm actually starting to respect the old curmudgeon, going up against the establishment and all that. I'm impressed. But, of course, anyone who takes on Mitch McConnell in a nasty, to-the-political-death fight very much in public is my hero. You know what the respectability of McConnell becomes should Bunning win the election.

Fisher vs. Brunner on the Web

The Buckeye State Blog talks about the Fisher vs. Brunner primary in terms of its online activism, making three points:

1. Brunner is kicking Fisher's ass in online fundraising -- something like $8,000 (JB) to $300 (LF). Also points us to Fisher's recently launched campaign website, where we see that his son is gorgeous. I might want to vote for him just for that reason.
2. Fisher is kicking Brunner's ass in getting friends on Facebook -- something like 1000 friends to 300. Here are their respective groups: Brunner and Fisher.
3. Mayor Mark Mallory is a friend of Fisher's on Facebook, which the author said could be interpreted as an endorsement.

And then, of course, we have the important question: does any of this matter?

NO!

I think Brunner's initial fundraising lead is impressive, but we're still nearly 10 months away from any serious campaigning, and Fisher did just open up his website. I think it's a little presumptuous to say that this will indicate any long-term growth. As for Facebook friends, I think the predominance of groups called "I bet I can find 1,000,000 supporters of... [insert cause or politician here]" tells us that friends on Facebook do not = votes in real life. Duh. And, finally, I'm friends with lots of people I don't like/know. That doesn't mean that I would write a letter of recommendation for them. Seriously.

At this point, we know nothing, but I'm an election junkie so... yea. I, apparently, think this is hella cool.

Oh, and Ms. Brunner is apparently trying to create the rhetoric of this campaign around the change vs. experience motif we saw in the last election. Here's the thing... if Obama is still doing well, then this will play great for Brunner. If Obama starts tanking... then it's a bad thing to play up. But, then again, why are we really expecting Obama to fail? So much depends upon... (From the Daily Kos)

Ohio LGBT Caucus Facebook Poll

Took this poll from the Ohio LGBT Democratic Caucus on Facebook today (and I hate adding new apps on Facebook, just for future reference). I like the results so far. :-) Can someone get me an interview with either of these two fabulous individuals?

We do see where the early support is, though, at least amongst the "connected" homosexuals (all 42 of us).

And we're off!!!!

The next round of entrants into the 2010 election has popped up! I'm a little late on a couple of these, so bear with me:

• Both Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner have announced their intentions to run for the Senate seat being exited by Sen. Voinovich. Gov. Strickland is behind Fisher, stating that he's the "most qualified," which many took as an indicator for other hopefuls to hold off until Fisher is in or out. Brunner, apparently, decided the time was ripe. I like Brunner. Both are excellent as far as queer folks go, and both have been acknowledged as being pro-LGBT by Equality Ohio, but I think the appeal of electing the first female Senator from Ohio is too great.
• And, despite the strength of Portman's name, it doesn't appear like he's going to go in for an easy run. Even possible contender for the Republican nomination -- state Auditor Mary Taylor -- is not holding up well against either Democrat. In all cases, there is a double digit lead in the early (early early) polling in favor of Brunner or Fisher. Fisher, btw, fairs the best. (The NYTimes also notes the Dem favor in the general election, saying that the Republicans will still bear the brunt of the Bush administration into 2010.)
• Meanwhile, don't think that Brunner/Fisher will be the final match-up. Christopher Celeste, son of former Democratic Governor Richard Celeste, has announced his intentions to run for Senate, as well. Though he claims he doesn't feel entitled, with no political history of his own to rely on, one wonders: what's the frakkin' point?
• Gov. Strickland looks poised to be OK in his seat, even against former Senator Mike DeWine or former Representative John Kasich, polling double digits above either candidate. I just think it says quite a bit that we're talking about a lot of "former this" Republicans, while we have a lot of seated Democrats. I'm just saying...
• In the midst of a lawsuit against WCPO for age and gender discrimination, former newscaster Laure Quinlivan is considering a run for Cincinnati City Council. I have some serious questions about the appropriateness of journalists becoming politicians. In fact, with the history this very article details, I'm really uncomfortable with the number of jumps that has happened. How good are newscasters if they always think: one day, I'll run for office.
• The Kentucky Senate race against Jim Bunning is starting to shape up, with Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo announcing his intentions to run. Two other Democrats -- Attorney General Jack Conway and state Auditor Crit Luallen -- may also announce in the next few weeks.

There's not a lot of gay in all these things, but it got me thinking on this: if we have such a fabulously supportive Executive Branch in Ohio for LGBT rights, why don't we have them yet?

Ohio's 2010 Senatorial Race

We've talked a lot about Rob Portman, but who else is being looked at to replace Voinovich in the U.S. Senate? The Columbus Dispatch points us to a poll that lists one other Republican -- State Auditor, Mary Taylor -- and two Democrats -- Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner and Lt. Gov. Lee Fischer. The run down of the poll, btw, has either Democrat in double digits over either candidate at this point for three reasons: 1) Brunner and Fischer are better known; 2) Strickland is still a popular governor; 3) Obama.

But let's look at the candidates and where they stand on LGBT issues.

Mary Taylor (R), State Auditor (2007-Present), Ohio House of Representatives (2002-2006), Councilwoman for Green Ohio
At this point we have very little information about this candidate, shockingly. Most of the information out of her, including her campaign website, highlights her views and her actions as the State Auditor rather than her feelings on issues. I checked out my usual source -- Project Vote-Smart -- and found little information about her. The only true indicator that we can find on this source is that she is rated very poorly by traditionally "liberal" organizations -- NARAL, Ohio League of Conservation Voters, and the Ohio Federation of Teachers -- while highly on traditionally "conservative" organizations -- NRA, Ohio Gun Owners of America, and the Ohio Chamber of Commerce. Things are looking bad for Ms. Taylor. OnTheIssues.org also has nothing listed for her. Her Wikipedia page is still pretty much empty as well, which will, no doubt, change.

In fact, the only thing I could find was that she voted YEA for the Ohio DOMA in 2004... along with Steve Driehaus, whom this blog endorsed in 2008 for the US House. It's not necessarily a damning offense, then, but it definitely doesn't bode well for Ms. Taylor.

On her side, though, at least for getting the nom, is that Republicans seem to want to appear more inclusive (see Sarah Palin and Michael Steele). Ms. Taylor is a "rising star" in the GOP here in Ohio, and the chance to grab the title of "first female Senator from Ohio" is sure to be a goal for the party this year, since they still look like a whole bunch of old white guys.

Jennifer Brunner, Secretary of State (2007-Present), Judge (2000-2005), Legislative Council to the Secretary of State and Private Lawyer

For Ms. Brunner we have a little more information, but from vastly different sources. OntheIssues.org, again, is worthless to us (it needs to be updated!!! AH!), and her Project Vote-Smart page is practically worthless. Nothing on there. But, we have two other sources.

First: her Wikipedia page is well developed. Though there is absolutely nothing listed about LGBT rights or issues, there seems to be a lot of information about her voting reform work (one of the main duties of the Secretary of State). It seems to have been an impressive bit of work too, and, since Ohio went smoothly this year, on that will be much heralded if she were to decide to run.

Second: We have JenniferBrunner.com -- a perennial campaign site that originated, it seems, from her 2006 campaign for SoS. Most notable is an endorsement from the Columbus Dispatch that states:

“the next secretary of state needs to be an impartial arbiter of elections. Blackwell’s politicking in 2004 for State Issue 1, the amendment banning gay marriages, and on behalf of President Bush’s re-election gave Democrats an opening to question his neutrality.”

OK, not bad. And then we come across this YouTube video from the United Way:

Guess where she is? That's right, kids. Columbus Pride 2008. I would say that's pretty damned impressive ain't it?

That's all I can find so far, but there was a bit about her son on Facebook and some strange pictures -- blah blah blah. I couldn't really figure it out as the original post was taken down. And, of course, a great blog posted by Ms. Brunner on the Huffington Post which I just think is appropriately entitled "On Being Fearless..." How about "On Being Fierce," Ms. Brunner.

Oh, and Brunner also attended a "Welcome Back to Ohio" brunch in 2007 hosted by Equality Ohio along with Strickland, Fisher, and a few others who are LGBT-friendly elected officials. Brunner, in this article, attributed her win to LGBT persons, as she tapped three Stonewall Columbus members to help run the campaign, and then tapped Brian Shinn (gay attorney) as her Assistant Legal Counsel, who is tied for the highest ranking LGBT appointed position in the State of Ohio with Mary Jo Hudson as the head of the Department of Insurance (Governor's Cabinet).

But that's Jennifer Brunner, for now.

And, last but not least...

Lee Fisher, Lieutenant Governor (2007-Present), Gubernatorial Candidate (1998), State Attorney General (1991-1995), State Senator (1983-1991), State Representative (1980-1982)

On experience alone, no one can beat Mr. Fisher. In fact, he looks like he may be the pick by Gov. Strickland, who is strongly dissuading other candidates to wait until Fisher decides. But let's look at everything else shall we? Again, OnTheIssues.org is useless - HA! His Wikipedia article is still light, and his official state biography has nothing on it of value. I again remind you of the above-mentioned story about the brunch attended by Fisher and other LGBT-affirming elected officials in 2007 and hosted by Equality Ohio in the statehouse, most notably because of this quote by Fisher:

“This is where history has been made and unmade for centuries,” Fisher said, standing about 25 feet from a plaque noting that Abraham Lincoln spoke there. “But also the echo in here sends a ripple effect to all 88 counties that we’re back.”

Not as exciting as Brunner's, but still important.

Then we run over to Project Vote-Smart's page on Lee Fisher, and we have the only candidate so far to answer their Political Courage test. Two things are notable: 1) that, in 1998, he supported laws protecting people against sexual orientation discrimination in the state, and 2) he does not support recognizing gay marriages in Ohio (but it was 1998, I'd be curious to know if his opinion has changed at all). But that's about all we can find, as he hasn't yet been rated by anyone nor has there been much of an opportunity to say much about LGBT issues as Lt. Gov. I'm sure it will come if he runs.

---

So there we have the three other candidates that people are talking about. On the Democratic side, we're, essentially, waiting for Lee Fisher to decide before anyone else steps up to the battle (though JenniferBrunner.com could count as a "campaign site"). On the Republican side, we definitely have Rob Portman, and we have a semi-campaign site for Mary Taylor.

What amuses me about all this talk is this:

Two years after we have the first black President elected, and the first female serious candidate for a major party, and the winds are screaming change...

...here in Ohio, we are still saying "pick the old, experienced white guy" over anything else.

Ahhh, to be in Ohio.

Oh, and just to be clear, folks, I'm totally supporting Jennifer Brunner because of the amount of information I found about her. I may switch the more I learn about Lee Fisher, but I will not be supporting either Portman or Taylor, I can promise you that, unless either one drastically changes their view.

And how weird would it be if Strickland said, "You know, I want to be Senator; Fisher and Brunner can run off for Gov?"