Tuesday, February 5, 2008

ELECTION 2008: Third Post of the Evening -- 2300

Ok, so I'm tired of reading over everything, I'm just going to do the "Corrects" and the "Incorrects" -- there are precious few Corrects :-(

Arkansas Dem -- Clinton WAS the First Lady of the state. Are you surprised?

Arkansas GOP -- Who'd a thunk anyone would care about Arkansas? Did you know that both Bill Clinton and Mike Huckabee are from the same home town? Strange place this little state... smallest one that side of the Mississippi, btw.

Arizona GOP -- There was a brief moment where we wondered if McCain was going to win his home state, but, come on folks... it's his home state. If Hillary can still pull Arkansas, and Romney can pull his "three home states" (UT, MI, MA), then I think this one is a given.

Connecticut Dem -- I'm giving myself this one, because I guessed by <3%Connecticut GOP -- McCain pretty much swept New England this evening, didn't he?

Delaware GOP -- I'm giving myself this one... I said 7-10, it turned out about 12 points for McCain. I'm ok with a little bit of "touching up" of my original guesses.

Georgia Dem -- Is it annoying to any of my black readers how much emphasis they are placing on the "black vote???" In a discussion with SCF, we wondered how racially based politicking is somehow OK, especially in the media, but gender based politicking is pariah.

Illinois Dem -- Obama's home state, Clinton didn't have a chance

Illinois GOP -- And I was really good at predicting the GOP. Of course, I'm far more unbiased in that area.

Massachusetts Dem -- Even the Kennedy's couldn't swing a win for Obama in their home state... Clinton by >10% baby!

Massachusetts GOP -- I debated whether or not to give myself this one -- Romney by 10 while I guessed >10. It's not quite the landslide he was hoping for. Good for him, but it's not as much as I thought he would take it by.

New Jersey Dem -- Yea! Was only one point off on this Clinton victory by 7%

New Jersey GOP -- Apparently I was wrong earlier about Giuliani on the ticket and coming in second. But wouldn't that have been funny?

New York Dem -- Duh. Clinton took it.

New York GOP -- Was there any question after the Giuliani endorsement? And, good job for McCain -- it's a winner-take-all state.

North Dakota GOP -- I suppose the Mormon influence is as great as I expected out in the western states

Oklahoma Dem -- Apparently Arkansas's sphere of influence for Clinton goes east and west. Who knew?

Oklahoma GOP -- Mccain by 4 points. I totally called it :-)

Tennessee Dem -- Duh. Clinton took it, as well.

Utah GOP -- Jesus! Or, should I say, Joseph Smith! 86 points to 7!!!! I have family out there. I am totally going to call them and ask them about the Mormon utopia that IS Utah.

West Virginia GOP -- Huckabee. He did really well today, didn't he?

Alabama Dem -- Obama by 14 points??? I didn't think he'd win THAT big there.

Alabama GOP -- HA! Georgia and Alabama go for a black man and... Huckabee? Never thought I'd see the day the voters went completely insane.

Delaware Dem -- Obama by 10 points??? Again, how did that happen?

Kansas Dem -- I'm not going to eat any crow on this one as there were no polls to guide us. I think I overestimated Clinton's celebrity, and am surprised Obama pulled this one off by a greater than 10-point victory

Minnesota Dem -- I think the Obama victory here is a surprise for a lot of people, as most people guessed Clinton would pull this off with well over a ten point spread; Obama got greater than a 10-point spread

Minnesota GOP -- I think Minnesota gave us all a run for our money this evening. Neither one turned out like most people expected.

North Dakota Dem -- Like Kansas, I overestimated Clinton's celebrity. Obama won BIG.


So, I haven't done so bad yet. I think I'll also get the following correct: Idaho Dem, Missouri Dem, Arizona Dem, Georgia GOP, Colorado GOP, and California GOP. But it looks like I'm f*cked in: Utah Dem, Colorado Dem, and Montana GOP.

But here's some surprises:

1) Could Huckabee take MISSOURI? NO WAY! It's really close, and Huckabee's ahead.

2) Could Huckabee take TENNESSEE? This man is doing really well today.

3) And Montana's second place winner is going to be... Ron Paul. No, really.

Give me a couple of hours and I'll do my next (and probably last) of the evening.

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