Friday, October 10, 2008

ELECTION 2008: New poll numbers

I'm happy to report that the McCain bounce is gone and it looks like we are bracing for a Barack Obama landslide!!!

Too bad the economy had to be run into the ground to make that happen.

Oh, and Charles Schumer, head of the DSCC and in charge of getting people elected to the Senate, is now openly talking about the possibility of 60 seats taken in the Senate for the Democrats. That's an unfilibusterable amount. The Republicans would be left with nothing to do but vote. This especially poignant locally since Bruce Lunsford seems to be coming up on Mitch McConnell over in Kentucky.

Let's look at some numbers, shall we? (The first "post-debate numbers" are starting to trickle in, so I thought I'd put this up before we saw the numbers come in.)

New Projections... (Conservative): 364 (BO), 174 (JM) -- One of the most pro-Republican sites ever and his words, that he got from Viking Pundit, was "Congratulations, President Obama." That's pretty significant. I just wish he hadn't gotten into the whole "pay to view" thing. Hey, some of us are poor and love the website. Sigh -- it means I haven't been following his excellent statistics as much. Most significant states that he's noting went blue: Missouri (few others are saying this at this point), North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida. All of them are "leans Obama." (Democrat): 349 (BO), 174 (JM), 15 (ties) -- Not ready, apparently, to call North Carolina even a lean Obama state yet. Still has it open to be called. Ok, maybe I was wrong on the Missouri thing -- he calls it, too, which is weird because Obama is just now pulling ahead and it's only been two polls... (His other site,, has an interesting data point: if all the Election Junkie (Conservative): We're cutting this one because I don't the guy is posting anymore. Last post? September 25th. Post before that? September 6th... for the RNC.

ColdHeartedTruth (Conservative): 338 (BO), 200 (JM) Still lists North Carolina, Indiana, and Missouri as McCain states, which is a viable point. Although he's somehow under the unlikely assumption that Michigan only "leans Obama." (unbiased): 264 (BO), 164 (JM), 111 (tie) Something is strange about this website that I can't ever seem to find the information I'm looking for. It may be dropped next time. OH! There it goes. Swing states include: VA, NC, OH, MO, FL, NV, IN, and CO. Point to be made here: there are fewer and fewer swing states and the ones that are are big ones.

USElectionAtlas (unbiased): 329 (BO), 158 (JM), 51 (ties) We're going to start basing this number off their polling map, not their prediction map. Dave's prediction map, for some reason, mainly has the Kerry states for Obama and is the exact same number as last time.

DemConWatch (Democrat): 321 (BO), 217 (JM) They are listing the following as "tossup:" Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Colorado, and Nevada. (Democrat): 347.6 (BO), 190.4 (JM) This actually has an interesting little bit that I'm going to be talking about on the new one... that I'm adding now... (unbiased): 320 (BO), 158 (JM), 60 (tie) I wonder when this would happen. Both and are listing West Virginia as a toss up. This is the first time, but it's been closer than they've been reporting all along. In short, no one thought it would close up and would, like Montana and the Dakotas early on, start becoming redder. Nope. It's becoming bluer.

Old Projections ... 273 (BO), 265 (JM) 273 (BO), 265 (JM)
Election Junkie: 298 (BO), 240 (JM)
ColdHeartedTruth: 273 (BO), 265 (JM)
USElectionAtlas: 273 (BO), 265 (JM) 312 (BO), 226 (JM)

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