Tuesday, September 23, 2008

ELECTION 2008: New Electoral Vote Count Update!

ISO: A poll tracker that currently shows a John McCain win based on state-by-state polling. I would like to start tracking that, as well, but my main sources of conservative commentation -- ColdHeartedTruth, Election Junkie, and Election Projection -- all show a statistical win for Barack Obama.

OK -- so it's been well over a month before I did a comprehensive update on the election, and I'm not going to do a lot of going into anything becuase everyone is still obsessed with celebrity.

The big news, of course, is that John McCain's post-convention bounce has vanished into thin air.... and the unfavorables on that woman are going up. And, what makes things even more fun, is that it appears we have an outing in the McCain camp: Mark Buse, McCain's Chief of Staff. According to Joe.My.God., this is one of four acceptable reasons to out a public figure... when they run the program for a prominent anti-gay politician. And I think, yes, we're going to say that he's anti-gay, that McCain fellow. (This was originally posted on Michelangelo Signorile's blog, btw, who does an excellent job talking about it.)

It has also been reported that Obama seems to have conceded North Dakota, despite earlier indications he was ahead there by pulling out his staff and moving them to Mississippi and Wisconsin. Why does this matter? Because it signifies the first major move away from the 50-state solution in a state that looked like we might be able to grab. But... Mississippi? Obama must be really hoping for huge new additions to the voter rolls... though the socially conservative black vote in California may start problems for Proposition 8.

Oh, and the first debate is this Friday.

Onto the numbers, where I'm going to simply start documenting what states are "new Dem" states from the 2004 (what seems to be pickups from the 2004 election) -- please note that Barack only needs to get all the Kerry states + 3 more... pretty much any three more.

There is a very large chance that we could have a tie situtation. If Barack wins Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa, but New Hampshire goes red (this is a completely likely scenario), then the EV's split 269-269. The House then decides the election with each state getting one vote. There's a great rundown on what that would look like out there on the interweb somewhere that I read. I will try to find it again because it is worth the read and shows a likely John McCain win (if we assume that the representatives from each state, appropriately, voted for the candidate that their state went for). A tie, then, works well into the hands of the Republicans even assuming a complete Dem take-over of the House (also very likely).

Oh, and PS, I really don't think either Pennsylvania or Michigan are as "swingy" as everyone makes them out to be. Rather, I think there is almost no chance either will go McCain unless it's a McCain landslide.

As a reminder, this is what the 2004 electoral vote map looked like...



New Projections...
ElectionProjection.com: 273 (BO), 265 (JM) -- Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa (the second two look to be less "swing" this time around) There also seems to be an interesting shift in both the Governor's races, with Washington swinging right, and a Senate race or two on this site.

Electoral-Vote.com: 273 (BO), 265 (JM) -- Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa. I watch this site daily ... he updates at 6:00am. Also, he started a new site, evstrength.com, though I prefer his old method. Check out the map from Sept. 18, whic was the highest point McCain had reached, when Pennsylvania started to swing -- it is the only winning scenario that any site has yet published.

Election Junkie: 298 (BO), 240 (JM) -- Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Nevada, and Ohio. This is really really old data, publishedon 8/30/08, so pre-convention.

ColdHeartedTruth: 273 (BO), 265 (JM) -- CO, NM, IA. Are you seeing a pattern here, kids?

270toWin.com: 202 (BO), 163 (JM), 173 (ties) -- these are the "strong state numbers." Swing states listed: WI, MI, MO (which is almost out of the discussion these days it seems), CO, NV, PA, OH, IN, VA, NH, NC, FL, and MN. A lot more Dem swings than Rep swings.

USElection Atlas: 273 (BO), 265 (JM) -- again, more of the same. CO, NM, IA.

DemConWatch: 284 (BO), 254 (JM) -- I'm not quite sure I understand where they get this number from -- but I like it!!!

FiveThirtyEight.com: 312 (BO), 226 (JM) -- this is the only site that shows a "landslide" (>300EV's) for Barack, it's also the only one that has VA still listed as blue. However, it's also the only site that weights the polls based on accuracy and when they were done. Something to think about...


Last Post's (8/13/08) Projections...
ElectionProjection.com: 298 (BO), 240 (JM)
Electoral-Vote.com: 289 (BO), 249 (JM)
Election Junkie: 278 (BO), 260 (JM)
ColdHeartedTruth: 298 (BO), 240 (JM)
270toWin.com: 231 (BO), 154 (BO), 153 (ties)
USElectionAtlas: 293 (BO), 245 (JM)
DemConWatch: 299 (BO), 239 (JM)

I know you are all so excited I did this. Just, please, humor me and read :-).

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