Friday, October 31, 2008

ELECTION 2008: Prediction

I officially made my prediction over at the DemConWatchBlog 2008 prediction contest. Here's my guess:

<p><strong>><a href="">Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Obama: 382 EV's, 53.5% of the popular vote
Will win ALL of Kerry's states, and add (in order of likelihood): Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico (just add these three and he wins 273-265), Nevada, Virginia, Ohio (breaks 300 EV's, 311-227, can claim a mandate at this point), North Carolina/Florida (equally likely), Missouri, Georgia, North Dakota

McCain: 156 EV's, 45.5% of the popular vote
He will keep the following "new" swing states (in order of strength): West Viriginia (by 5-10%), Arizona (by 5-10%), South Dakota (by 5-10%), Montana (by 0.1-5%), and Indiana (by 0.1-3%).

My reasoning is thus: If it turns out to be an Obama landslide, those states that are polling and "swinging" a lot (Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, Missouri, North Dakota, and, less so, Ohio) will go with Obama. Those that are polling regularly close but on the side of McCain (i.e., one or two polls in the last week with an Obama edge or tied) will stay with McCain. Indiana's EV's will go into recount at least once, as will Georgia's. But I think they will split the difference.

Georgia, I am betting on Obama because of A) potential African American turnout, and B) Bob Barr told me Obama would win, and C) the Macon Telegraph endorsed Obama. For the deep, central south, that is not a small feat.

I will not be doing anymore polling updates, nor will I be adding anything about the coming polls for the next few days. At this point, only one poll will matter: the final vote count. (Barring something exceptional over the weekend like repeating polls of Obama ahead in Arizona.)

I know many, many, many of you are relieved.

PS The cynic in me is actually saying the count should be 291-247 as a more realistic number, with all Kerry going to Obama, and including only Virginia, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada. I reserve the right, on election night, to say "well, I guess cynical me was right, but I was still right." :-)

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