Wednesday, February 20, 2008

ELECTION 2008: Wisconsin, Washington, Hawaii

The ongoing "anti-Hillary" media blitz is getting on my nerves.

As of right now (1230AM EST), per CNN, this is the delegate count (Hawaii has not closed yet):

Obama -- 1301
Clinton -- 1239

There are 4049 delegates total that will be at the party convention (approx), 2566 (approx) delegates have been awarded, and there are 1483 delegates left.

In order to get the 2025 needed to win the Democratic nomination, Obama needs 724 more delegates, or 48% of what's left, and Clinton needs 786, or 53%. Now, I am a fierce Hillary supporter (if you hadn't figured that out yet), as I think she will do best for this country, and, though I have some questions and concerns about him (and his followers), I like Obama.

But guess what? Per the rules of the Democratic nomination process, this is still a statistical dead heat. Sure, Obama's picking up a lot of wins. But in what states??? North Dakota. Idaho. Utah. Hawaii (probably). Alabama. Alaska. With a few exceptions -- like Georgia and Illinois (which, I would argue, had Obama come from anywhere else, would have gone Hillary) -- small states that traditionally vote Republican. Now, in the long term, that little bit might be helpful as it seems that he has some sway in Republican land.

Where is Clinton winning? California. Massachusetts. New York. New Jersey. Big states that traditionally vote Democrat. In the general election, she has a firm hold in classical Dem territory. But those states are done, with the exception of a couple like Oregon and Pennsylvania (Wisconsin was a blow tonight, as was Minnesota).

This all comes of the back of a poll on the front page of that asks: Should Clinton and Huckabee quit? I kind of know where they are coming from but 1) it's still way too early to throw in the towel for Clinton -- as she's still polling well, and ahead, in both Texas and Ohio, and 2) the fact that the vote went 61-39 for Clinton to quit as of right now.

There is still time people -- and I believe it is possible. But I'm going to say it now: I think Obama will be the Democratic nominee for President. I'm starting to feel it ... and it feels like indigestion.

(Oh, and I may have called Texas way too early for Huckabee, especially if McCain picks a running mate soon... and one that has Southern appeal, which I think, if he is smart, he will in an effort to get rid of this annoying "unite the party" crap that people are talking about. God, the media is so freaking annoying... esp when it disagrees with you.)

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