Thursday, July 9, 2009

2010 Election Update

You know my love of Jennifer Brunner, but, after my experience at the Ohio Democratic Party Family Dinner about a week ago, I started to wonder, due to the overabundance of Lee Fisher stickers and absolutely no Brunner stickers, about her candidacy (especially with GOP Senate candidate Rob Portman posting $1.5million in fundraising, Fisher at $900,000, and Brunner's numbers undisclosed). When I inquired, a Fisher worker informed me, with an ironic tone, that she had said it was inappropriate to campaign at the dinner. I wonder which was right, but there are still some rumblings, and she responded sharply on her website:
Ever since I decided to give up the security of what is widely regarded as a "safe" re-election for Secretary of State and instead run for the U.S. Senate, the political insiders in Columbus and Washington began actively discouraging my candidacy. "She can’t raise the money," said many. "You shouldn’t run for the Senate if the Governor supports Lieutenant Governor Fisher," warned some Washington insiders in January. "You need to take one for the team, even though I don’t think the Lt. Gov. can win in the general election," one Congressman cautioned. "I think you have the political skills to win this election, but you need the money,” said a political mentor...

I am in this race to stay.
For the second time today, I'll say it: Snap when you say that girl. Despite expected disparities in fundraising (word of mouth, no actual source, but I think I read it somewhere) in the previous quarter of FEC reports, polls are showing a dead heat in a Fisher-Brunner matchup -- 24-21 (Quinnipiac, 7/7/09) or 22-17 (Daily KOS/Research 2000, 7/9/09). Meanwhile, KOS/Research 2000 (same article) show Fisher and Brunner polling ahead their all-but-nominated Republican counterpart, former Bush OMB director Rob Portman, by 7 and 4, respectively, or by 4 and 1, depending on whom you listen to. Portman is actually closing the gap; Republicans are finding new candidates right and left in the flagging economy, as Obama's polls numbers continue to drop. In Ohio, it's under 50% for the first time since he was elected.

Meanwhile, Democrats still look solidly ahead (second source which also shows Gov. Strickland ahead of potential GOP candidate Rep. Kasich by 5%) for 2010, though it appears Steve Chabot will be challenging Rep. Driehaus for his OH-01 (that's, uh, Cincinnati, folks) seat back in the coming election.

And that's your long-delayed 2010 election update, thought I have something bigger coming likely in the morning.

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