ELECTION 2008: 270toWin.com

Thanks to the authors of 270toWin.com who pointed me to a more precise polling estimates as to who will be winning the EV's on their site. Here is their email to me:

Hi,

Thanks for including 270toWin in your recaps. In terms of reporting our current polling estimates, you might want to work off this map:

http://www.270towin.com/2008_polls/mccain_obama/

The home page interactive map, which will eventually align with the above map as we get closer to the election, is changed less frequently as we base it more on historical trends. For example, while North Dakota and Montana are polling close right now, we’re not yet convinced they’ll actually really be in play come Election Day.

They were so nice. This changes their estimate (at the moment) to: 229 (BO), 160 (JM)-- still not a clear winner, but the numbers are higher. Damn, I think I got those numbers wrong. I'm stupid and can't read graphs. Much love

And they're right about Montana and North Dakota. There is always, of course, the possibility of the Bradley Effect in play here.

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Also, random point from FOXNews this morning... is John McCain eligible to run for President? He was born in the Panama Canal Zone in 1936 and thus, per Article, Section 1 of the Constitution, not a "natural born citizen." However, his parents were both US citizens serving a military purpose (his dad was in the Navy -- cue the Village People!!!!). The full wording of the Article is:

No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States.

Here are some people that believe that: American Chaos, Real Truth Online, and the LRC Blog.

Shockingly we may have a good answer from an MSNBC article, which indicates the intent of the forefathers, who passed a law in 1790 that said anyone born to US Citizens outside of the country is a natural born citizen. The text is here:

"And the children of citizens of the United States that may be born beyond sea, or outside the limits of the United States, shall be considered as natural born citizens." (from a great summary here, which also includes a Supreme Court case ruling in 1927 that indicates Mr. McCain is OK)

And there is a great article from the International Herald Times discussing the issue.

However, the Senate passed a non-binding resolution on April 30, 2008 stating that he is a natural-born citizen. Even if it were to come to court, I think there is enough indications that it's ok.