Thursday, July 10, 2008

ELECTION 2008: Weekly Update 7-10-08

Last Weeks Estimates...

Here are the (now) weekly estimates for the Electoral Vote per my favorite websites: 338 (BO), 200 (JM)
Electoral Vote: 317 (BO) 221 (JM)
Election-Junkie: 306 (BO), 232 (JM)

And the ones that just report polls and don't make "predictions," just show numbers: 185 (BO), 174 (JM)
US Election Atlas: 261 (BO), 180 (JM)

This Week's Estimates... 306 (BO), 232 (JM)
BO-32 due to polls showing him trailing in Nevada (EV=5) and Florida (EV=27). As a side note, and I've always sad this about the Blogging Caesar over there, he knows his shit and is probably (to my mind) the most accurate pundit.

Electoral Vote: 320 (BO) 218 (JM)
BO+3 due to a poll showing him ahead in Montana. He has a really interesting chart that comes from online polls in 32 states produced by Zogby here -- also, this guy is great as he does daily updates.

Election Junkie: 306 (BO), 218 (JM)
Per the author:
Due to another day of either worthless or no polls at all, I am going to wait until the end of the week to post my next projection.
He's right... it did seem like a really unusual week for polls, not the least of which is due to July 4 being in there and no polls done pretty much the whole weekend.

New Poll Estimates...

Coldhearted Truth: 293 (BO), 245 (JM)

There is an argument here that most of my "guessers" are conservatives. I have yet to find a good liberal EV counter. I actually prefer things like Electoral Vote, ElectionProjection, and USElectionAtlas because they are very mathematically based. So when you get to things like Election Junkie or Coldhearted Truth, you have people using polls and then interpreting.

The point? These are conservatives saying that Barack is going to win. 185 (BO), 174 (JM)
No change, but Montana, North Dakota (recent polls showing JM only 1 point ahead there), and Indiana all still listed in the McCain category.

USElectionAtlas: 268 (BO), 188 (JM)
Listing a number of changes, including Nevada going to JM; Colorado going to BO; and New Mexico, Montana, Indiana and North Dakota becoming "in play." (PLEASE NOTE: Dave Leip has the colors reversed -- John McCain is blue, and Barack is red; he has a great note on his page how the red-blue thing did not becoem standard until the 2000 election.)


This little flicker from Jesse Jackson:

I have one thing to say: who the fuck cares? Jesse Jackson is a pompous ass. It's really funny that, despite people like Fox who were lambasting him for everything he does (remember him going to Southeastern Europe and walking across the border with POW's?), people now care what he thinks.

He's a smart man, but, come on guys, what value does he have anymore???


No real movement on the Senate or Houses. A few more have been listed as "in play," but the general consensus is that the Republicans are just fighting back a "blue wave," spending money to defend existing seats where as the Dem's are holding pretty strong and able to challenge new seats.


We're going to start watching Ohio-specific races once things settle down around here; and I will start making endorsements come August or so.

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