Wednesday, February 27, 2008

ELECTION 2008: New polls show Clinton...

...not as far behind as we thought.



2-26 Insider Advantage
Clinton - 46; Obama - 47; Und - 7

2-26 Public Policy Standing
Clinton - 48; Obama - 48; Und - 4

2-25 "Other Source"
Clinton - 46; Obama - 43; Und - 11


2-25 Survey USA
Clinton - 50; Obama - 44; Und - 3

2-25 Ramussen
Clinton - 48; Obama - 43; Und - 9

2-25 Quinnipiac
Clinton - 51; Obama - 40; Und - 9


2-25 Quinnipiac
Clinton - 49; Obama - 43; Und - 7

2-18 Franklin and Marshall
Clinton -44; Obama - 32; Und - 20

2-12 Quinnipiac
Clinton - 52; Obama - 36; Und - 11


Rhode Island
2-23 Ramussen
Clinton - 53; Obama - 38; Und - 9


The other one going next week, Vermont, has Obama in a double digit lead. Regarding the March 4th primaries,

This is optimist talking:
Clinton wins: Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island
Obama wins: Vermont

This is my realist talking:
Clinton wins: Ohio, Rhode Island
Obama wins: Texas, Vermont

This is my pessimist talking:
Clinton wins: Rhode Island
Obama wins: Texas, Ohio, Vermont

If either my optimist or my realist is correct, then the Wyoming caucuses are next on March 8 -- and Obama's pretty much won ever caucus state -- then Mississippi on March 11 -- and Obama's won pretty much every Southern state. But we won't see Pennsylvania until April 22 -- almost a full month and a half until we get there. In terms of big wins after that, it's NC/IN (only slightly bigger than Ohio combined) on May 6th, and then KY/OR (about the same as Georgia or North Carolina combined) on May 20. And that's it. If my optimist or realist wins and then Clinton wins Pennsylvania...

Well. I can't believe we'll still be going well on into May because that would put then keep them in a dead heat. In fact, I predict that the total delegates received on March 4 will be within 20 points of each other. Which, if the difference goes towards Clinton, Sen. Obama will be about 70 delegates ahead. If the difference goes towards Obama, then he'll be only slightly above 100 delegates ahead. Which means, btw, for Obama to win outright, he would have to score an additional 500-600 delegates from the remaining states... of approximately 750 left to be won.

Congratulations, no matter what happens March 4, we have a contested Democratic presidential primary.



gigglechick said...

i feel that she'll win Texas AND Ohio (if the amount of TX/OH Hillary gear that people have bought from me is any indication, she will win :}

the gear is here:

(not trying to blogwhore... it just comes naturally :}

Barry Floore said...

HA! It's aight, gigglechick... as long as you validly add to the discussion as WELL as be a whore.

That's the story of my life, ultimately... adding to the conversation while being a whore :-).

It's a fabulous existence.