2012 is the very earliest a constitutional amendment could go to the voters in Iowa to overturn the Supreme Court's decision to legalize marriage.
From his post, here is the breakdown:
2009 (now)As a note, Ohio's equal marriage ban -- Issue 1 in 2004 -- only passed by 55-45 or something similar. That's really close for Ohio.
Of equal importance, perhaps more, he makes this comment about the data:
All of the other variables that I looked at -- race, education levels, party registration, etc. -- either did not appear to matter at all, or became redundant once we accounted for religiosity. Nor does it appear to make a significant difference whether the ban affected marriage only, or both marriage and civil unions.Did you hear that? The only major variable that matters is religion. I'm sure there's a point there somewhere.